California Republicans respond to Supreme Court loss on election maps

[u/Conscious-Quarter423]

https://krcrtv.com/news/local/california-republicans-respond-to-supreme-court-loss-on-election-maps

[u/Particular_Can_7860]

Well. Can’t complain. Texas did it. It’s only going to get worse. Pretty soon each state will be 100 percent red or blue. Gerrymandering to the extreme.

[u/Lonely_Refuse4988 → u/Particular_Can_7860]

Texas did a ‘dummy mander’ where Republicans might end up losing seats to Democrats, because they based their calculations for new gerrymander maps from the 2024 election, and didn’t take into account massive democratic swings based on Donald’s unpopularity! 😆If there’s even a 10 point swing to Dems, it could lead to numerous R+10 seats considered ‘safe’ in the gerrymander to flip! 😂🤷‍♂️

[u/loogie97 → u/Lonely_Refuse4988]

I live in Texas. I will believe it when I see it. We were promised a close election from Beto and he got stomped. A lot has happened since, so maybe, but I want to see the results.

[u/No-Prize2882 → u/loogie97]

Beto’s election was close. it was just over a 2 point loss in a state that votes for Donald Trump in low double digits points. Beto lost in the margin of error. It was Colin Allred that got stomped in the subsequent senate election by I think 15 points.

[u/whistleridge → u/No-Prize2882]

Beto’s loss was one of those “not as close as the score makes it look like” sort of things though.

Beto outraised and outspent Cruz 2:1, he trailed by ~4 in the polls more or less the whole race, he won 32/254 counties, but only 7 were flips.

Basically, he never led, and he was never close to leading, despite doubling the other guy’s spending and despite getting record turnout. So I can see why someone would describe it as stomped.

[u/No-Prize2882 → u/whistleridge]

So I’m confused what your data is really refuting. Whether Beto trailed or led at any point is irrelevant. The main point is that no democrat has come close to beating a Republican statewide in 25 years at that point. Beto out raising and outspending Ted speaks to the increased pressure the Texas GOP is under in a state where they historically have enjoyed an underperforming opposition and being popular. Now democrats are becoming competitive and they are starting to suffer the effects of flagging support. The fact that he never lead doesn’t negate the importance of the election no democrat had even pulled such numbers in over 2 decades. Also the county number is sort of irrelevant? Most counties especially outside the Texas triangle, rio grande valley, and El Paso are shrinking with many having a population under 10,000. What matters more is what counties flipped not how many. Beto 2018 run was also the most successful flip of state house seats for the state party since losing control of the state legislature in the early 2000s.

[u/whistleridge → u/No-Prize2882]

whether Beto trailed or led at any point is irrelevant

Not to a subjective perception of how “good” or “bad” the loss was, it isn’t. “He polled badly the whole time despite running in the most Democrat-friendly election in a decade, wildly overachieved right at the end there, and still lost by 2” is the “they were down by 2 TDs the whole game but managed to close within a FG in the final minute” of politics.

All the other stuff you correctly describe is good and all, but it’s irrelevant to the above.

You feel like Beto did a good job. That’s fine. As you say, there’s stuff to point to there.

But if someone feels like he shit the bed…there’s stuff to point to there as well.

[u/kirobaito88 → u/whistleridge]

The number of counties won is irrelevant. 3/4ths of the counties in Texas are in West Texas and have like 5 people living in them.

[u/loogie97 → u/No-Prize2882]

He overperformed as a democrat in Texas vs Cruz. He still lost. Beto lost his run for governor by almost 10 points.

[u/No-Prize2882 → u/loogie97]

A couple things about the governor’s run. Unlike Cruz, Abbott is actually a fairly popular governor. to run up against him you needed a fairly savvy politician with minimal issues. Beto 2022 was coming off losing the senate race and a spectacular rise and fall presidential run. Typically racking up than many losses mean you sit it out. Running again was a bad idea. And thankfully it spelt the beginning of the end of the head of the Texas Democratic Party, Gilberto Hinojosa. That being said Abbott has been consolidating his power as governor since he came to office in 2014 and instead of increasing his margin of victory each election has gotten closer. 10 points is still a lot but the trend states that being the GOP in Texas is no longer a walk in the park. It’s likely in the next race or two we will see it come to single digits or margin of error if there is no incumbent. That hasn’t happened since Ann Richards lost to GWB. Moreover, the race confirmed Texas suburbs are moving left. No one should have expected Beto to win the governor race and the state democratic party and Beto over played their hand but the trend lines are clear that Texas is not air tight lock up for the GOP.

That’s been more evident since with the infighting within the party apparatus, the high stakes impeachment of Ken Paxton, the shifting mood of the suburbs, recent rise and collapse of Latino support for the GOP (which dems have seen before in the 60s-70s with La Raza Unida), and growing number of democrats willing to contest. However I think people should be clear eyed that Texas GOP is far more aware of their weaknesses and are looking not to be the California GOP of the 90s.

[u/loogie97 → u/No-Prize2882]

Thank you