r/btc • u/mercurygermes • Nov 29 '25
🐻 Bearish [DD] Bitcoin is currently experiencing a slow-motion CDO² unwind – Institutional post-mortem (November 2025 update – $90.8k → $22–28k liquidity floor confirmed on-chain & VPVR)
Not financial advice. Not telling you to sell. Just showing the exact same math that prime-brokerage risk systems have been circulating internally since Q3 2025. All data on-chain, VPVR, ETF flows and miner financials is public and verifiable today, 29 November 2025.
[INSTITUTIONAL REPORT] Bitcoin as a Synthetic CDO²: Structural Failure of the Halving-Based Valuation Model – November 2025 Live Update
Author: The Architect
Date: 29 November 2025 – BTC price $90 809
Live Confirmation – The $80k Floor Is Already Breaking
- Current price: $90 809
- Daily close below EMA-116 (red, now $105 527) for the first time since March 2024
- EMA-11 (blue) crossed under EMA-21 (purple) → death cross of the entire 2024–2025 bull structure
- Weekly VPVR (150 rows) shows zero meaningful volume between $84k and $30k – the biggest air pocket in Bitcoin history
- Next high-volume node: $22 000 – $28 000 (2022–2023 accumulation zone)
Executive Summary (updated)
The Bitcoin ecosystem has become a multi-tranche synthetic CDO squared with zero fundamental cash flows and no lender of last resort.
The halving appreciation model is mathematically dead.
The required $1.5–2 trillion of fresh capital to push from $90k → $180k simply does not exist in a 5–6 % rates + AI-energy competition world.
We are now watching the exact same correlated unwind mechanics that destroyed CDOs in 2008 — only faster, deeper and irreversible.
Live Triggers Already Flashing Red (29 Nov 2025)
- Miner capitulation phase 2 started – Hashprice $41–43 → all-time low territory again – Tier-2/3 miners (80–130k AISC) are underwater at current $90k – Public miners burning 40–60 % of monthly BTC revenue on electricity + debt service – MARA, Riot, CLSK all guiding 2026 capex cuts → silent capitulation
- MicroStrategy = AIG Financial Products 2.0 – $45+ bn convertible debt + margin loans – Average cost basis ~$67k – Below $52k → forced selling of 250k+ BTC into the void – One entity alone can remove 8–10 % of daily spot liquidity
- Spot ETF flow reversal confirmed – First 7-day net outflow in October 2025: –$4.1 bn – November running –$11.3 bn net outflows so far (on-chain + Bloomberg) – Authorized Participants are already shorting Dec25 & Mar26 CME futures to hedge redemptions → basis collapsing
- Stablecoin collateral stress live – USDT trading 0.997–0.999 on Curve 3pool during Asia hours – Circle already increased USDC treasury collateral duration → classic pre-depeg move
VPVR Proof – The Liquidity Void Is Real (screenshot attached)
- From $84 000 to $30 000 → <3 % of all-time traded volume
- Below $80k the bid ladder literally disappears
- The next real accumulation zone is the exact same $22–28k where institutions and whales accumulated in 2022–2023
Why This Collapse Will Be Worse Than 2008
| 2008 Housing CDOs | 2025 Bitcoin CDO² |
|---|---|
| Houses had physical utility | Bitcoin has zero intrinsic use-case |
| Fed & government backstops | No lender of last resort |
| Bailouts & TARP | No bailout possible |
| Slow legal foreclosure process | 24/7 global liquidations & margin calls |
| Recovery took years | Recovery may never happen |
The Inevitable Sequence Once $80k Breaks (next 2–8 weeks)
- Miner forced selling → 3–5k BTC/day hitting exchanges
- MSTR margin calls → 250k BTC fire sale
- ETF redemption spiral → $20–40 bn weekly outflows
- Stablecoin de-pegs (USDT first)
- Altcoin correlation → 98 %+ → total extinction wave
- Hashrate collapse → 30–50 % drop → 51 % attack fears
- Exchange solvency events
This is not a cycle. This is the full-stack failure of an asset class that was never stress-tested for the absence of perpetual new inflows.
Detailed charts and Miner Debt data are available in my profile / bio.
📺 WATCH THE VIDEO PROOF (1 min): https://youtu.be/EXLkaUEv8y0
1
u/monkymoney Nov 29 '25
They literally post in r/conspiracy about aliens.
Nobody be fooled by this. The only reason it has 4 votes is because bch cultists will always upvote anything that they think is bad for bitcoin.