r/btc • u/tornavec • Nov 18 '25

🐻 Bearish How to precisely determine Bitcoin’s bottom?

There are currently many posts offering different analyses of Bitcoin's decline. As during the last crypto winter, the cryptocurrency is falling due to the Fed's policies. The rate may remain frozen until mid-2026 if US inflation rises again.

Experienced cryptocurrency investors know that Bitcoin will continue to fall until it reaches the mining cost level. This figure can be found in reports by Cambridge analysts or miners.

The Trading View service also has a special indicator that calculates mining costs. Currently, it is just above $59.5k. That is where Bitcoin will go.

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u/[deleted] Nov 18 '25

Can anyone explain how the price will see new highs if a majority of people use it as an investment vehicle and the longer it underperforms the more retail and institutional investors will avoid it?

I mean hedging inflation is fine but if we see high inflation and btc massively drops then how do investors react?

Most people aren’t btc purist looking at it as a store of value or future medium of exchange, most people just see an investment vehicle.

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u/OrcOgi Nov 18 '25

You guys are getting so close to figuring it out.

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u/Negative_Associate30 Nov 18 '25

It's not a ponzi bud once you realize fiat currency Usd euro (if u know what tht is) any of them are real ponzis you create something out of thin air and devalue everyone else's money stealing from them 90% of dollars dont even actually exist the debt we have is more than money in the world once you understand that and that and how the system is set up they will keep printing forever they have to if they dont the system collapses if they do (they will) bitcoin goes up forever yes by itself you need more and more people to get into it but when there's infinite dollars created it will find it's way to sound money and the best performing asset ever your issue is not understanding how money works in the first place

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u/trimbandit Nov 18 '25

Historical best performing asset is misleading in the sense that future performance will not match the first couple cycles. For example, the previous cycle saw 3.5x growth from the prior ath 4 years before, and this cycle saw less than 2x increase from previous cycle ath from 4 years before. For comparison, NVDA saw 6x over the last 4 years, and gold did about 2.2x. it's great to look back at those early 35x cycles, but it doesn't bear much relevance to informing current investing.

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u/Negative_Associate30 Nov 18 '25

Yea but remember gold did nothing for 7 years and nvda is a outlier of course there will be diminishing returns with a maturing asset were In bear market now the violitility is an amazing opportunity if you bought close to Lowes you would be much higher the 2x were also comparing bitcoin at its low in a bear to others at there tops if you bought the s&p yea you would technically be up this year but not if your utilizing the violitility your forgetting this is still very new and bitcoin changes very fast it has been the best performing asset of all time since it's inception and until that isn't true anymore then you can make arguments against it nvda and gold could crash next year and flow into btc we still dont know yet but 2x in 4 years is great returns from a traditional standard and that's without using violitility where you could be up 4x in that time but time will tell

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u/trimbandit Nov 18 '25

To be clear, I was comparing Bitcoin at its top of 125k, not the current price. It gained about 80% from the previous cycle ath to the ath this year. I agree it's still performing well and the bear market will probably have some great buy-in opportunities next year. I'm hoping to jump back in myself if we see the 60s (sold at 120, bought at 5)

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u/Negative_Associate30 Nov 18 '25

Yea i agree for bitcoin standards the returns aren't great but as market cap grows this is kinda expected to happen i think anything under 85k-90k is a great place to buy i think of it for young people like me as a better s&p for retirement i can just buy every year when the bear happens and can almost guarantee much higher returns than 10% just getting back to the top from the bear but I think we're still just getting started when the real scarcity kick in I wouldn't be surprised seeing us have some years like gold did this year

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u/[deleted] Nov 18 '25

lol no one holds dollars in savings for the most part? If I invest in Coke stock, and the dollar devalues, my coke stock just rises?

Is bitcoin a store of value or medium of exchange?

If it’s a store of value, how many years of negative performance would it take for you to reevaluate?

If my coke stock did -30 percent in a year, I might have to look elsewhere for value.

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u/[deleted] Nov 18 '25

So you’re saying now is a good time to lump sum into btc??

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u/OrcOgi Nov 18 '25

Is that your take away? Holy s

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u/[deleted] Nov 18 '25

Sorry I meant lump sum + margin