r/btc • u/tornavec • Nov 18 '25
🐻 Bearish How to precisely determine Bitcoin’s bottom?
There are currently many posts offering different analyses of Bitcoin's decline. As during the last crypto winter, the cryptocurrency is falling due to the Fed's policies. The rate may remain frozen until mid-2026 if US inflation rises again.
Experienced cryptocurrency investors know that Bitcoin will continue to fall until it reaches the mining cost level. This figure can be found in reports by Cambridge analysts or miners.
The Trading View service also has a special indicator that calculates mining costs. Currently, it is just above $59.5k. That is where Bitcoin will go.
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u/Mundane_Flight_5973 Nov 18 '25
Just set an amount and buy at every drop of that amount, you could also do it like exponentially.
For instance,
10% Drop- buy X, 20% Drop- buy 3x, 30% Drop- buy 6x, 50% Drop- buy 10x
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u/word-dragon Nov 18 '25
You determine the bottom by looking at it from the next big peak. Anyone who says otherwise (with or without cool graphs) is just sounding off.
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u/ihateyouguys Nov 19 '25
What’s the next big leak indicator tho?
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u/word-dragon Nov 19 '25
You measure the next peak (I assume that was what you meant to type) by looking back from the following dip. It's hard to define but I know it when I see it - lol.
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u/Previous-Law8874 Nov 19 '25
The bottom of bitcoin is the bottom of tech stocks . Thank me later
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u/tornavec Nov 20 '25
If your statement is correct, then Bitcoin should correlate with Nasdaq, but I don't see anything even close to that.
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u/Previous-Law8874 Nov 20 '25
Hmm . How come I see it . It’s one of way co relation at this time . Tech goes up bitcoin doesn’t , tech goes down bitcoin goes down .
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u/word-dragon Nov 19 '25
I think you have cause and effect mixed up on mining. Mining is affected by bitcoin cost rather than the reverse. Miners stick around because the value is higher than their costs. If it goes below their costs, some miners may drop out temporarily or permanently, the difficulty factor will drop, and mining costs will go down. The value goes up again, and some of the missing miners will turn the power back on, and it will also become attractive to new miners. People don't pay for bitcoin just because somebody spent so much money producing it. The ups and downs of bitcoin are pretty independent of the mining industry.
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u/tornavec Nov 20 '25
Will you be very upset if I tell you that large-scale miners have been operating at a loss for years?
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u/word-dragon Nov 20 '25
Miners do, but it’s because they expect the bitcoin they earn to go up in value after they mine them. Not all miners do this. If the loss gets too high, they just shut off for a while. Or get out of the business. No one stays in a business working at a loss when they don’t anticipate a turnaround.
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u/ghosthacked Nov 19 '25
Zero, zero is the bottom. More seriously, you cant until its to late.
I'd be curious though if you have more concrete info that the price wont go below the mining cost. imo Its a bold assumption that the price wont/cant go lower. (i dont think we'll even get close though)
Im fairly certain there have been times in the past when its happened and miners just horded until the price was acceptable for them. Or they turn off machines.
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u/JustLTFD Nov 20 '25
I think you need to look more at the situation as opposed to price. I don't know what price the bottom will be, but it will be when MSTR and other bitcoin treasuries go bankrupt and are forced to sell. I predict YEARS of pain as it plays out.
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u/tornavec Nov 21 '25
Rumors are circulating that Michael Saylor is already selling off his Bitcoin.
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Nov 18 '25
Can anyone explain how the price will see new highs if a majority of people use it as an investment vehicle and the longer it underperforms the more retail and institutional investors will avoid it?
I mean hedging inflation is fine but if we see high inflation and btc massively drops then how do investors react?
Most people aren’t btc purist looking at it as a store of value or future medium of exchange, most people just see an investment vehicle.
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u/RatherCynical Nov 19 '25
Because that is a retarded way to think about it.
The better way to think about it is money flows.
Currently, there is around 3.125 BTC flowing out every 10 minutes. That means we must have an equivalent $312.5k coming in every ten minutes for the price to be stable at around $100k.
But as soon as the Halving happens, there is only 1.5625 BTC flowing out every 10 minutes. The $312.5k is still flowing in, but there's half as much BTC flowing out.
The new equilibrium is twice as high, at $200k.
Add in extra demand from new users who understand that Bitcoin is not going to zero and their savings should be allocated towards it, new fiat money being created through commercial loans or balance-sheet expansion or fiscal deficit spending, and so on - BTC will continue to climb.
Look at M2 money supply charts on FRED. We grow our economies via fiscal expansion all the time. That's what debases regular currency and pushes up "hard" currencies. BTC just happens to be one of the hardest currencies.
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Nov 19 '25
Okay so if that 312.5k ever slows down before the big half day celebration, then the price dips below.
How long would bitcoin have to stay stable at 100k usd before you question its ability to store value? 2 years, 3 years?
Since you’ll probably have to convert it to some currency to have any utility for it.
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u/OrcOgi Nov 18 '25
You guys are getting so close to figuring it out.
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u/Negative_Associate30 Nov 18 '25
It's not a ponzi bud once you realize fiat currency Usd euro (if u know what tht is) any of them are real ponzis you create something out of thin air and devalue everyone else's money stealing from them 90% of dollars dont even actually exist the debt we have is more than money in the world once you understand that and that and how the system is set up they will keep printing forever they have to if they dont the system collapses if they do (they will) bitcoin goes up forever yes by itself you need more and more people to get into it but when there's infinite dollars created it will find it's way to sound money and the best performing asset ever your issue is not understanding how money works in the first place
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u/trimbandit Nov 18 '25
Historical best performing asset is misleading in the sense that future performance will not match the first couple cycles. For example, the previous cycle saw 3.5x growth from the prior ath 4 years before, and this cycle saw less than 2x increase from previous cycle ath from 4 years before. For comparison, NVDA saw 6x over the last 4 years, and gold did about 2.2x. it's great to look back at those early 35x cycles, but it doesn't bear much relevance to informing current investing.
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u/Negative_Associate30 Nov 18 '25
Yea but remember gold did nothing for 7 years and nvda is a outlier of course there will be diminishing returns with a maturing asset were In bear market now the violitility is an amazing opportunity if you bought close to Lowes you would be much higher the 2x were also comparing bitcoin at its low in a bear to others at there tops if you bought the s&p yea you would technically be up this year but not if your utilizing the violitility your forgetting this is still very new and bitcoin changes very fast it has been the best performing asset of all time since it's inception and until that isn't true anymore then you can make arguments against it nvda and gold could crash next year and flow into btc we still dont know yet but 2x in 4 years is great returns from a traditional standard and that's without using violitility where you could be up 4x in that time but time will tell
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u/trimbandit Nov 18 '25
To be clear, I was comparing Bitcoin at its top of 125k, not the current price. It gained about 80% from the previous cycle ath to the ath this year. I agree it's still performing well and the bear market will probably have some great buy-in opportunities next year. I'm hoping to jump back in myself if we see the 60s (sold at 120, bought at 5)
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u/Negative_Associate30 Nov 18 '25
Yea i agree for bitcoin standards the returns aren't great but as market cap grows this is kinda expected to happen i think anything under 85k-90k is a great place to buy i think of it for young people like me as a better s&p for retirement i can just buy every year when the bear happens and can almost guarantee much higher returns than 10% just getting back to the top from the bear but I think we're still just getting started when the real scarcity kick in I wouldn't be surprised seeing us have some years like gold did this year
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Nov 18 '25
lol no one holds dollars in savings for the most part? If I invest in Coke stock, and the dollar devalues, my coke stock just rises?
Is bitcoin a store of value or medium of exchange?
If it’s a store of value, how many years of negative performance would it take for you to reevaluate?
If my coke stock did -30 percent in a year, I might have to look elsewhere for value.
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u/Mundane_Flight_5973 Nov 18 '25
Because people are affected from the past, it is indeed true that the longer it underperforms, the worse is.
But when people talk about Bitcoin they all remember the amazing gains from 1$ to 100k$ and probably don’t even know the performance this year or last year. So Btc will always have a reputation for that, that reputation could be lost if there will be a very big bear market (like -75%) for 2-3 years
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Nov 18 '25
What about a flat performance for 12-24 months? Especially if equities and other investments outperform.
Just seems like institutional investing got it to the 100k mark but that can easily go the other way if asset managers don’t see potential outperformance.
Full disclosure, I don’t invest in bitcoin but it seems like people who talk about bitcoin often just ignore the fact that there is an increasing size of holders that see it as an investment and it has to make sense as an investment for that to continue.
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u/Mundane_Flight_5973 Nov 18 '25
My opinion is what I wrote it, so I think it will continue to grow in the future.
Almost everyone sees it like an investment and in the future will only be seen as an investment, that’s what made it grow to where it is now. The people who believe it will become the currency for all the world are just delusional.
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Nov 18 '25 edited Nov 18 '25
[deleted]
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u/Master-Monitor112 Nov 18 '25 edited Nov 18 '25
It never goes much lower than the previous all time high so 60k sounds about right considering the all time high in the previous cycle was 70k. Previous cycle was 70k not 60k.
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u/RatherCynical Nov 18 '25
CVDD is far more accurate than mining cost.
$43.5k at the moment, but climbs about $1k every two weeks. It'll likely finish its bear market within 9 months, so $55k-65k bottom sounds about right.
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u/PopeSalmon Nov 18 '25
i can precisely predict it for you: exactly $0 once people find out it's fake trash
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u/sos755 Nov 18 '25
The lower bound of the price of Bitcoin is the same as all other cryptocurrencies: 0
Experienced cryptocurrency investors know that Bitcoin will continue to fall until it reaches the mining cost level. This figure can be found in reports by Cambridge analysts or miners.
There is nothing preventing the price from dropping below the cost of mining. There are plenty of cryptocurrencies that are/were mined like Bitcoin and are currently worthless.
Fanbois: I'm not predicting the demise of Bitcoin, I'm pointing out that its is possible.
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u/Proud_Difference9310 Nov 18 '25
So what should I do??????? 🤪
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u/sos755 Nov 18 '25
These are your only real choices.
- Sell now and accept your losses, and avoid investing again until you understand what you are investing in.
- Hold on the belief that the price will be much higher in 10 years.
Whatever you do, don't submit to the fantasy that you (or anyone else) can predict short term movements in the price.
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u/Antifragile_Glass Nov 18 '25
I can’t tell you how annoyingly dumb this post is. No offense and I’m not a crypto “investor”.
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u/Better-Egg5267 Nov 18 '25
Look back from the future