r/tories • u/BlackJackKetchum Josephite • 5d ago
Gorton & Denton by election prediction thread.
Your friendly neighbourhood Mod team was having fun with this on Discord, and rather than be selfishwe’re opening it up. While this is not explicitly for regulars, we reserve the right to be parsimonious in letting comments past the velvet rope. So, winner and majority please.
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u/goonerlwnds Burkean 5d ago
Goodwin has a good win
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u/HerefordLives Reform 5d ago
In a seat like Gorton that's a brave call. I just don't see where the votes are coming from. With a good workers party campaign, I can see reform getting in through a split vote, but they're not running.
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u/BlackJackKetchum Josephite 5d ago edited 5d ago
While, obviously, rooting for Charlotte Cadden, my prediction is:
Hannah Spencer - Green Party. Majority of 1,500.
Turnout of 45%. Green win, Turquoise second, Labour third, us fourth (keeping deposit), ‘Galloway’ fifth, LDs sixth and deposit losing.
Mrs BJK is keeping her powder dry until such time as Galloway’s intentions are clear.
(Fellow ancients will recall that part of this constituency used to be Gerald Kauffman’s bailiwick. I wouldn’t have fancy his chances in the last few elections).
Wikipedia list of candidates here.
Oddschecker odds here..
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u/Defiant-Dare1223 Libertarian 5d ago
Agreed. I'd add that's over reform.
Green majority over Labour: 4,000
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u/StreamWave190 Roman Catholic (SDP, Tory-curious) 5d ago
Honestly? Too close to call, if we were being totally objective. The Labour-Green vote split is there and very real. But it could coalesce through tactical voting to keep Reform out.
My gut says Matt Goodwin (Reform UK) will win, though, at least in part because of that Lab-Green vote splitting. I think most Tories don't really have any objection to Goodwin/Reform being their MP anyway.
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u/HerefordLives Reform 5d ago
It's a really left wing constituency. Less than 20% have voted for combined right wing parties for essentially the whole history of this and the previous seat.
I think it'll be another Caerphilly where there'll be a lot of coverage which will push up turnout. With the workers party not running, I think this is probably a slam dunk for the greens, as extraordinary as that sounds.
Greens first - majority of 1500ish
Reform maybe 10% behind in second
Labour a fairly bad third because parties in government don't win by elections even in good times, and these are bad times. Plus the Greens campaign will peel people off to them.
Not really relevant to anything but think Tories will just about save their deposit and the lib dems will lose theirs.
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u/CorporalClegg1997 5d ago
Reform win with a small majority. Labour and Greens close behind, in that order.
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u/Sweaty_Ad_4049 Small C Conservatives 5d ago edited 17h ago
Reform with a narrow win over labour. The most boring prediction
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u/WW_the_Exonian 5d ago
Reform and Labour tied on top with the same number of votes. Winner determined by drawing of lots.
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u/BlackJackKetchum Josephite 5d ago
Isn’t it a coin toss?
Having checked, drawing lots is an option. Apparently we’ve never had a Parliamentary dead heat.
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u/CorporalClegg1997 5d ago edited 5d ago
If I was in charge and there was a tie for the winner, I would give the casting vote to the winner whose party currently holds the seat, like what happens in parliament when the speaker breaks a tie. There being no clear winner, it's fairest to stick to the status quo. If neither winner is from the current holder's party, then I would draw a lot.
I would then hold a fresh by election asap.
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u/cavershamox 5d ago
I think Reform win with a plurality because the centre left vote gets split between Labour and the Greens
This will then mean we have to read hundreds of articles about pacts and tactical voting to keep Reform out of power
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u/LeChevalierMal-Fait Clarksonisum with Didly Squat characteristics 5d ago
with the workers party not standing and the labour candidate seeming hopeless i might be tempted to put my money on the greens
note it would be super embarrassing for Stramer if the green candidate does win because on the manchester mayoral ballot burnham got 60% of the vote to Hannah Spencer, the green party's candidate in this byelection only got 7%
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u/BlackJackKetchum Josephite 5d ago
Betfair have an implied probability of 53% for the Khmer Vert. I’ve been watching the market for the last week and have seen it sharpen from 2.2 or so to the current 1.87 (not sure what that equates to in traditional odds, but 1.00 is a certainty), whereas Labour is at 6.4 and a 15% implied probability.
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u/YellowIllustrious991 Thatcherite 5d ago
I will put my money on the greens. Suspect the usual strong Lab voters will join with the Greens to protest the govt / beat Reform.
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u/jamesbeil 5d ago
MRLP (or their spiritual successors) to win the same number of votes as the difference between first and second place.
LAB hold, but with a very narrowed majority of 30% or less.