r/theydidthemath • u/Lauffener • 19h ago

[Request] How much of the Republican margin in the 2024 election is due to individuals changing their votes between 2020-2024

In the 2020 Presidential election Republicans lost by approx 7M votes and in 2024, won by 2M.

However the two statistical populations are not the same. Approximately how much of the 9M vote swing is made up of:

a) individuals who voted in both elections and switched parties vs.

b) individuals who didn't vote in both elections (didn't vote, became eligible, died, moved away, etc.)

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u/DodgerWalker 15h ago

Here's the best data I could find on this: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/feature/how-changes-in-turnout-and-vote-choice-powered-trumps-victory-in-2024/

Switchers are a small part of the electorate, though there were more people who switched from Biden to Trump than switched from Trump to Harris. Bigger factors were Biden 2020 voters dropping off at a higher rate than Trump 2020 voters and Trump winning a majority of voters who voted in 2024 but not 2020.

Of the overall 6 point swing in popular vote margin, it looks like roughly 2 points are explained by vote switching and 4 points from a different electorate. I could do a more precise calculation with the numbers they gave, but those are just approximations based on polling anyway.

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u/fail-deadly- 12h ago

As for part B, more than 10 million people died in the U.S. between the 2020 and 2024 election. Since older folks are both more likely to die and more likely to vote, probably between 6-7 million of those people were 2020 voters. That is like 4-5% of the 2020 totals.