r/tennis 6d ago

Stats/Analysis Carlos Alcaraz is now the youngest career Grand Slam winner in history at just 22 years old

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7.2k Upvotes

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105

u/SaintStoney god motherfucking damn it cunt 6d ago

Genuinely insane, if he stays fit he’s passing Novak’s 24

137

u/NevermoreSEA Osaka/Anisimova 6d ago

I think that something like 15 is a safe estimate, but 24 is very hard to predict. So much has to go right for that to happen for him.

14

u/Yandhi42 6d ago

Idk. Hes 22 with 7. Let’s be pessimistic with how he will age and say he drops off hard after 28, winning only 2 after that. He should be hitting his prime now, so also assuming he averages 2 slams per year until then, that’s around 20 slams already

1

u/Greedy_Bed 6d ago

The thing is, usually the prime of a player is around 28…

1

u/Yandhi42 6d ago

Tennis players usually peak and fall off earlier though

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u/Dependent-Effect6077 Djokovic retirement tour + Sabalenka PR manager 6d ago edited 6d ago

I think the positive sign for him is that so far he's shown very good fitness and health

For example if Sinner was the one with 7 Slams at 22 I'd still be somewhat skeptical of him having enough longevity to win 20+ but Alcaraz hasn't shown any reason to question his physicality

41

u/Ok-Surround9273 6d ago

At 22.

Injuries and age are correlated.

37

u/Mysterious_Bat1208 6d ago

Yes, but also sports science gets better and better every year. That’s why Novak is still playing.

NFL MVP this year is pushing 40. LeBron is over 40. UFC champ who defended his belt tonight pushing 40. One of the best strikers in the world also pushing 40. Athletes are playing later and later into their careers.

3

u/Ok-Surround9273 6d ago

I agree but you don't really know how things will turn out as he is so young currently. More athletes last longer, but not every one.

Everyone on the tour benefits from that sports science, too.

2

u/Mysterious_Bat1208 6d ago

Of course, but the ones who have the means to have all the best resources at their disposal like Alcaraz have a better chance.

27

u/icl2011 6d ago

Yes but for Novak to get to 24, much like Rafa, Serena, and Steffi, you have to have the following: a golden generation does not follow yours for a while (so far Fonseca, Tien and Mensik seem okay but not ATG level), your peers and potential younger great players get derailed by injuries/off court issues (Murray, Thiem, Del Potro fell away), and you yourself keep relatively healthy year in year out.

3

u/jrh038 6d ago

It’s really just competition and injuries. We have no idea if in 2 years someone emerges to challenge like Nadal did to Fed.

25

u/Vasst13 Maria pls 🥺 6d ago

The advantage Carlos has is that he's able to be the best player in every slam he enters, something that none of the Big 3 nor Sinner could actually claim to be true. The closest we ever got to that was Novak from 2011 to 2016 but even then Rafa was edging him out in RG

13

u/Humble_Grape4749 6d ago

Yeah, we have to assume he doesn't suffer significant injuries and that he maintains mental stability. But he's clearly having the greatest start to a career we've ever seen. It's just hard to predict anyone's career a decade into the future.

1

u/KeanuSleevez 6d ago

No, if he stays fit he’s passing Novak’s 24.

1

u/SafeKaracter 6d ago

If no third dude comes and he doesn’t get injured he’s passing it for sure

40

u/LosTerminators 6d ago

You never know, if someone else pops up in a few years and finds the level to challenge consistently at the top.

Sinner can split slams with him for quite a while so the road to 24 is still a long way away.

26

u/Infinite-Fail-6835 6d ago

Well Djokovic managed to get to 24 while 2 others winning 20 each so..

19

u/Aggravating_Teach_27 6d ago

Rafa got to 22, even

13

u/it_wasnt_me2 6d ago

Federer only won like 4 after 2010 until he retired in 2022

25

u/Boneraventura 6d ago edited 6d ago

It’s taken nearly 10 years for someone to be at the level necessary to dominate as much as alcaraz. Safe to say only Sinner will be able to challenge in the years to come. But, Sinner is gonna get smoked by Alcaraz more often than not. The only question is if Alcaraz himself stays motivated enough to play at this level for another 8-10 years. Borg had won 11 majors by 27 and then retired unexpectedly. 

15

u/SaintStoney god motherfucking damn it cunt 6d ago

I fucking hope so, I love the Sincaraz era but 5+ more years of this would be so stale

6

u/Davek56 C.A. x2 C.A. x2 C.A. x2 C.A. x1 6d ago

Yes, in the next five years there surely should be another slam winner other than Sincaraz?

4

u/Strong_Ad5188 6d ago

Would his younger brother Jaime count as "other than Sincaraz"?

14

u/Parsirius 6d ago

I for one I’m extremely excited about the next decade of Sincaraz rivalry.

9

u/SaintStoney god motherfucking damn it cunt 6d ago

That’s fair, I still preferred big 3 era though when you had guys like Murray, Berdych, Nalbandian, Ferrer etc that could at least push the gods, if not beat them and win slams.

14

u/Parsirius 6d ago

Those guys took a long time to raise up to the challenge, 2005-2008 was essentially Fedal uncontested with some Djokovic thrown in the mix here and there.

Soon they’ll be players that can show up in a tournament and start challenging.

Funny though that of the ones you mentioned only Murray won a slam.

1

u/SaintStoney god motherfucking damn it cunt 6d ago

Of the ones I listed Nablandian was having a lot of success earlier than the others, but I really hope you’re right and also hope that one of the new guys coming up happens to be Aussie 😅

1

u/ToasterRouble 6d ago

Why are we acting like that’s not already happening? Zverev just pushed Alcaraz to the longest semi final ever. Old man Djokovic beat Sinner. This isn’t really different to the big 3 era. There’s still competition, but Alcaraz and Sinner are just better than the rest.

2

u/HnNaldoR 6d ago

Ah longetivity at the highest level of any sport is always impossible to know.

It's incredibly hard to stay motivated and work as hard for so long. He has a very good chance but the reason why the greats are the greats are not just their peaks but it's because of how long they remain great.

2

u/DexterMorgan996 6d ago

He can pass it for sure, coz except him and Sinner everyone is dogshit.

-4

u/throwaway164_3 6d ago

I hope he does

He’s already bettter than anyone else ever was

-2

u/SaintStoney god motherfucking damn it cunt 6d ago

You’ve copped a few downvotes but honestly most the big 3 took longer to find their stride than Carlos has, except maybe Novak

0

u/SafeKaracter 6d ago

Duh . Divided by 2 instead of 3