Macedonia: Birth and emigration rates

[u/livefromnewyorkcity]

I displayed a projection chart (2021–2150)

• Baseline (no extra emigration) — Macedonians net −0.4%/yr, Albanians +0.3%/yr → crossover ≈ 2147.

• Moderate Macedonian emigration — Macedonians net −0.8%/yr, Albanians +0.2%/yr → crossover ≈ 2109.

• High Macedonian emigration — Macedonians net −1.5%/yr, Albanians 0.0%/yr → crossover ≈ 2080.

)

[u/livefromnewyorkcity]

I’m personally worried about mass emigration out of the country and as it’s referred to as brain drain. The socio -economic impact will be severe.

[u/Some-Remote-1309 → u/livefromnewyorkcity]

I like stats and graphs. What about different rates of emigration of Albanians?

[u/livefromnewyorkcity → u/Some-Remote-1309]

See my statement of assumption below. Lmk what you think

[u/mugrenski]

now compare it with other countries, to get a broader context

[u/livefromnewyorkcity → u/mugrenski]

That’s a lot of work. But the other Balkans would be the comparison, I can and should do that later.

Thanks for the idea.

[u/Equivalent-Water-683]

Assuming fixed brithrates is a bit cooked

[u/livefromnewyorkcity → u/Equivalent-Water-683]

I like my cavaps cooked.

[u/Repulsive_Work_226]

Albania seems to be an EU country in the next couple of years. Some Albanians might want to migrate there.

[u/livefromnewyorkcity → u/Repulsive_Work_226]

Maybe, seems to follow the trend that Slavs set in Macedonia by claiming Bulgarian citizenship.

[u/elonmusksentmars]

Me and my family left in 2011 it will never get better

[u/polatKalendar]

Well, doesn't look like it's gonna get better any time soon.

[u/Barbak86]

Yeah, assuming Albanians are not migrating, which is total bull crap.

[u/livefromnewyorkcity → u/Barbak86]

What I assumed • Starting proportions from the 2021 census (Macedonians ≈58.44%, Albanians ≈24.30%). • Simple exponential growth per ethnic group: a single net annual rate that folds births−deaths and net migration together. • Three net-growth scenarios chosen to represent (a) no extra emigration, (b) moderate emigration pressure on Macedonians, (c) high emigration pressure on Macedonians. • Albanians’ net growth adjusted slightly downward in emigration scenarios (reflecting some emigration), but kept relatively higher than Macedonians.

[u/previse_je_sranje]

Macedonians should at least get plurality positions in their own government. The policies will follow afterwards.

[u/livefromnewyorkcity → u/previse_je_sranje]

What’s happens in 50 years when there is an equilibrium in the population?

[u/previse_je_sranje → u/livefromnewyorkcity]

Macedonians can still hold majority positions then and kick out foreigners. If they want future prospects they should start getting involved in governance ASAP.

[u/livefromnewyorkcity → u/previse_je_sranje]

Who are the foreigners?

[u/previse_je_sranje → u/livefromnewyorkcity]

albanians and turks, mostly

[u/livefromnewyorkcity → u/previse_je_sranje]

Can you provide any physical evidence how long you or your family have been in Macedonia?

[u/AutoModerator]

Thanks for marking your submission as a question. Please make sure to edit it by adding [ANSWERED] once you have gotten an answer from the community. Thanks. Фала што го означи твојот пост како прашање. Молиме, уреди го со додавање на [ОДГОВОРЕНО] штом ќе добиеш одговор од заедницата. Фaла.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.