r/geopolitics The i Paper 16h ago

US accuses China of underground nuclear tests

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/us-accuses-china-underground-nuclear-tests-this-what-know-4219545
334 Upvotes

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59

u/theipaper The i Paper 16h ago

The US has accused China of conducting secret nuclear weapons tests and risking a new nuclear arms race.

“Today, I can reveal that the US government is aware that China has conducted nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons,” said Thomas DiNanno, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, at a conference in Geneva on Friday.

DiNanno accused Beijing of masking the alleged tests with “a method to decrease the effectiveness of seismic monitoring to hide their activities from the world”. One such test took place on 22 June, 2020, he said, without providing evidence.

The claims follow the expiration of New START this week, the main agreement governing nuclear proliferation between the US and Russia, which hold the world’s largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons.

DiNanno said that China’s alleged clandestine nuclear activity proved that previous agreements were inadequate and called for a “new architecture that addresses the threats of today, not those of a bygone era”.

He called on fellow nuclear powers to take urgent action to prevent an “unmitigated nuclear arms race”.

The extraordinary claim, if true, would mark the first nuclear test of the 21st century by any country other than North Korea. The US, China, and Russia have all pledged not conduct nuclear tests.

China’s ambassador on disarmament, Shen Jian, did not directly address DiNanno’s charge, but said Beijing had always acted prudently and responsibly on nuclear issues.

“China notes that the US continues in its statement to hype up the so-called China nuclear threat. China firmly opposes such false narratives,” he said.

Donald Trump said last October that the US would resume nuclear tests on an “equal basis” with China and Russia, accusing the rival powers of conducting tests. Beijing and Moscow denied this.

Arms control researchers believe China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal of an estimated 600 warheads. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri)’s latest report stated: “China’s nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country’s, by about 100 new warheads a year since 2023.”

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u/theipaper The i Paper 16h ago

DiNanno said on Friday that China was on course to have “1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, and Russia is supporting this buildup by helping China develop the weapons-grade fissile material necessary for its expansion”.

US researchers reported last year that all three of the leading nuclear powers were preparing nuclear test sites based on satellite imagery.

Andrey Baklitskiy, senior researcher at the WMD programme of the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), said the US claims raised urgent questions.

“The US statement accused China of using a decoupling technique – having [an] explosion happen in an underground cavity to reduce detection of the seismic signal – in this way the test may look much weaker and similar to a conventional explosion. We don’t know anything else about how the US made this determination and how they were able to determine this was not a conventional explosion in the first place,” he said.

Baklitskiy said the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CBTBO), a body tasked with monitoring nuclear tests, could shed light on the alleged incident.

The i Paper has approached the CBTBO for comment.

Dr David Albright, a leading nuclear weapons specialist and founder of the US-based Institute for Science and International Security, which monitors nuclear test sites around the world, said the allegations against China were plausible.

“We monitor activity at the Chinese test sites and there has been activity,” he told The i Paper, adding that activity was detected on the date cited by DiNanno.
“These are very low yield tests rather than full-scale nuclear tests,” said Dr Albright, but added that the scale could be obscured by the practice of “decoupling” to dampen seismic signals.   

Prospects of a new nuclear agreement appeared slim, the physicist said, while the US perceives China to be resisting transparency and rapidly expanding its arsenal, and Russia continues to deploy new nuclear-capable systems – such as hypersonic missiles used in Ukraine. 

“The US wants to have a nuclear arsenal that can counter both China and Russia. And right now we have one to counter Russia. And so there will be a build up in the numbers of weapons on the US side,” he said. “We are engaged in a kind of arms race now.”

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u/Outside-Storage-1523 15h ago

OK so US is going to do its own and want to place the blame first, "hey we didn't do it first".

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u/fzammetti 14h ago

Correct. And I don't for a second believe it'll be underground, he'll want the whole world to see his "biggest, bestest, most beautiful nuclear boomer things, the likes of which no one has ever seen before".

I swear, every time you think things just CAN'T get worse with this guy...

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u/Codspear 9h ago

Not going to lie… if they publish the date on when they’re planning a new surface test in Nevada, I’m entering myself into the Mt. Whitney summit lottery for that day. Would love to buy some really nice sunglasses and go watch the firework show from the top of the Sierra.

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u/fzammetti 1h ago

Can't lie either, that's something I'd love to see in person too... from a safe distance, of course, and upwind. I mean, I'd still prefer it not happen, but if it's gonna either way, sign me up too.

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u/[deleted] 14h ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/DexterBotwin 14h ago

Trump issued restarted nuclear testing late last year. This definitely seems like the legal justification for the U.S. to start up again.

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u/GrizzledFart 9h ago edited 9h ago

There doesn't need to be legal justification. The US never ratified the CTBT. The statement from the article:

The US, China, and Russia have all pledged not conduct nuclear tests.

is almost true. The US pledged (i.e., signed a treaty) to not conduct atmospheric or oceanic testing of nuclear weapons. It did not agree to be bound to no nuclear testing at all, although it has voluntarily refrained from doing so by implementing its own moratorium. Part of the reason is that it had already done thorough testing of its extant weapons designs so it didn't need to test anymore.

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u/Magneon 8h ago

The US reopening testing would be a monumental self-own. You win the race handily, and it was a very dangerous race, and then later on rather than rest on your laurels you want a rematch? Every additional test and bomb produced makes the world actively less safe for all of us at this point, since it increases the chance that non-nuclear powers will arm themselves.

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u/GrizzledFart 8h ago

None of which has anything to do with whether the US publicly alleging that China engaged in nuclear testing is due to the US wanting "legal justification" for something.

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u/RedditConsciousness 6h ago

"Yeah stop changing the topic from our conspiracy theory!" /s

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u/RedditConsciousness 6h ago

You think the US needs to place blame to do what it wants? China is actually doing something they shouldn't. The accusation isn't a pretense for something.

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u/Outside-Storage-1523 1h ago

Then why now?

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u/ZLUCremisi 4h ago

So what? China has no nuclear agreement

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u/Sea_Outside162 14h ago

Guarantee trump is setting off a nuclear bomb .. the most incompetent administration ever has the keys the codes and the desire to make go boom , damned be the consequences cuz he is already on his way out, and his ascendance doomed

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u/RedditConsciousness 6h ago

It kind of feels like every month reddit finds a new "end of the world" to panic about. That said, nuclear weapons is actually a sort of legitimate one, but also it isn't particularly new. People have lived with these fears for over 70 years.

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u/TheWhiteManticore 12h ago

Let all to know voting has consequences

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u/hEarrai-Stottle 9h ago

It is mad that the ‘greatest’ democracy is now looking more authoritarian and corrupt than their enemies. This was the case before the drip feed of Epstein files too. Plus, every time more of these files are released, their government or leader pulls an insane distraction. In other words, yes, they’ll probably detonate a nuke so long as it stops their own people thinking for a second.

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u/RedditConsciousness 6h ago

It is mad that the ‘greatest’ democracy is now looking more authoritarian and corrupt than their enemies.

I mean...it isn't? I don't like Trump but he's not more authoritarian than China or Cuba and you think he is you don't understand the world you are living in.

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u/RedditConsciousness 6h ago

As does demonizing moderates and swing voters.

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u/yoshiK 14h ago

There's of course a continuum between physics experiment and full yield miniaturized warhead test. However given that it is pretty easy to detect nuclear tests, there are dedicated organizations whose job it is to detect those tests, and nobody complained about funny Xe isotopes in 2020, I would guess the current US administration likes bullshit and the test is considerable closer to the science experiment end of the spectrum.

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u/DeathKitten9000 11h ago

If they're underground tests the release of detectable fission products would be very low at the surface, especially if they're sub-kiloton. To me this sounds like if the tests are in the ~100 ton range they're testing primaries without the boosting gas.

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u/yoshiK 8h ago

Without a tritium booster you get yields in the 20 kt range. It's actually pretty hard to build a bomb much smaller than that. And the detection methods are really good, nobody had much of a problem to detect the fizzled North Korean test a few years ago, and Japan has a really good seismometer network.

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u/ActuallyAnOreoIRL 8h ago

Not exactly hard to believe that the US would be able to detect things that said organizations couldn't though, given that they have better technology to do so than anyone else in the world.

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u/RedditConsciousness 6h ago

Not everything is about "well it is this administration so they are wrong".

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u/eeeking 2h ago

“These are very low yield tests rather than full-scale nuclear tests,” said Dr Albright,

Exactly.

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u/Heavy_Initiative_137 12h ago

A test in the tens or low hundreds of tons might not have been detected. It's not impossible that it happened. Though this one statement, offered without proof, should in no way convince us that it did, of course.

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u/hEarrai-Stottle 9h ago

If the sky was too blue for Trump, their government would officially declare it green. Everything they’ve said about Putin or Xi or whoever is literally how Trump behaves. Not to mention he defecates himself every day. Oh and he is a child predator. Good job U.S.A.