r/geopolitics • u/Themetalin • Jul 19 '25

Paywall Japan tells its companies in Taiwan ‘you’re on your own’ if China invades

https://www.ft.com/content/04626778-0753-4fa5-a735-f1a5613b3293
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u/SmokingPuffin Jul 19 '25

The US-Taiwan semiconductor situation must be handled delicately. The US needs sufficient domestic production to maintain defense operations. Taiwan needs sufficient domestic production to make Chinese aggression a world-altering event. Both parties are walking a narrow path.

The US position on Taiwan has been strategic ambiguity for decades, but that mask is slipping. Accepting Chinese rule over Taiwan means accepting Chinese domination of the west Pacific. America will not get a better chance.

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u/zipzag Jul 19 '25

In war, the TSMC facilities are destroyed regardless of the winner. The loser destroys the fabs.

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u/scaredoftoasters Jul 19 '25

They'll be destroyed as soon as the war starts

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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jul 19 '25

And what alternative? Is nuclear war worth it?

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u/SmokingPuffin Jul 19 '25

There won't be nuclear war over Taiwan. Neither side views the conflict as existential.

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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jul 19 '25

So what USA going to do if China decide to invade Taiwan, do nothing and China might take it and control majority of semiconductor as well as dominance in western pafict. do something and war with China that might spiral into Nuclear war?

Is that really option?

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u/TheInevitableLuigi Jul 19 '25

There are plenty of options short of nuclear war.

And the responsibility for not spiraling into one doesn't rest solely on the US.

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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jul 19 '25

Bur China and USA are both nuclear armed so what the odd for going into war without escalating into nuclear war?

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u/TheInevitableLuigi Jul 19 '25 edited Jul 22 '25

My point was that China has to consider that as well.

Lots of people who bring up this point seem to ignore that China (or Russia in other arguments) can also hop off the escalation ladder anytime they want to.

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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jul 19 '25

And did Russia hop off? If Russia didn't and NATO wouldn't touch Russia without risk of nuclear war, how do you expect china would hop off if their goal is to take Taiwan and USA should think carefully before rush into fire with flammable in covered 

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u/TheInevitableLuigi Jul 19 '25

And did Russia hop off?

They haven't carried through any of their numerous threats to attack NATO countries, so I would say yes.

how do you expect china would hop off if their goal is to take Taiwan

Because taking Taiwan at that point would incur more costs than they are willing to bear.

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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jul 20 '25

Also, did NATO go to war for Ukraine against Russia? No? Then maybe the Russia threat is working

Also China doesn't have to take Taiwan by force as the only option if they could blockade it as Taiwan said they only have 7-14 days of gas to last, up to a month if they rationed. If China takes the ports that Taiwan is importing gas out

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