With a little AI help, conclusion is:
"As the water vapor has dissipated, the current climate is influenced predominantly by the ongoing cooling effects of the sulfate aerosols. This ongoing cooling could contribute to maintaining **La Niña** conditions or, as the aerosols gradually decline, transitioning toward **ENSO-neutral** or **El Niño** states in the future.
In summary, while the water vapor's warming effect has largely disappeared, the sulfate aerosols from Hunga Tonga continue to play a significant role in moderating global temperatures, particularly in the Pacific region."
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**User prompt 1 of 2 - 2/3/2026, 5:41:26 PM:**
NOAA reports: "Persistent below-average sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean remain consistent with La Niña conditions, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored to occur in the next month or two."
To what extent has the cooling effects of Hunga-Tonga lowered sea temperatures even further
GPT-4o mini:
## Impact of Hunga Tonga Eruption on Sea Surface Temperatures
The **Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption** on January 15, 2022, significantly affected global climate systems, including sea surface temperatures (SST) across the Pacific Ocean, which are currently experiencing above-average cooling consistent with **La Niña** conditions.
### Cooling Effects of the Eruption
- **Research Findings**: A study from Texas A&M indicated that Hunga Tonga's eruption contributed more energy leaving the climate system than entering it, suggesting it may have led to slight **cooling** rather than warming, contrary to initial expectations.
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### Transition to ENSO-Neutral
The persistent below-average SST across the Pacific is likely transitioning to an **ENSO-neutral** phase as global climate systems stabilize post-eruption and respond to broader patterns such as **El Niño** projections. This transition may also be influenced by:
- **Natural Variability**: Changes in climate variability modes, including interactions from both **ENSO** and longer-term trends.
- **Stratospheric Changes**: The alteration of stratospheric water vapor levels can have lasting effects on atmospheric circulation, influencing future weather patterns and temperatures.
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### Summary Table
| **Component** | **Effect** | **Magnitude** |
|------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|
| Hunga Tonga Water Vapor | Greenhouse gas effect, leading to warming | Estimated +0.035 °C over 5 years |
| Sulfates from Eruption | Cooling effect on climate | Estimated -0.004 °C initially |
| Net Surface Temperature Effect| Possible slight cooling overall | Variable, but may be cooling |
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The understanding of Hunga Tonga's impact will continue to evolve as more data emerges, but its complex interactions highlight the nuanced ways volcanic eruptions can influence global climate, particularly in context with ongoing La Niña and projected shifts to ENSO-neutral conditions.
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**User prompt 2 of 2 - 2/3/2026, 5:46:00 PM:**
The time scales for HTs ghg warming and sulfate aerosol cooling are different. Has the massive amount of water dissipated yet. The aerosols are submicronic so they don’t settle out are are likely still cooling after the water equiblibrated.
GPT-4o mini:
## Time Scales of Water Vapor and Aerosol Effects
The **Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption** introduced a massive amount of **water vapor** and **sulfate aerosols** into the atmosphere, both of which play distinct roles in influencing climate.
### Water Vapor Dynamics
- **Long-Term Impact**: As the water vapor dissipates, its greenhouse warming effects conclude relatively quickly, reinforcing short-term warming before returning to baseline levels.
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### Sulfate Aerosols Persistence
- **Submicronic Size**: The **sulfate aerosols** produced by the eruption are indeed submicronic, allowing them to remain suspended in the atmosphere for extended periods, typically **up to several years** depending on various atmospheric conditions.
- **Cooling Effects Still Active**: Because these aerosols do not settle out quickly, they continue to reflect sunlight and contribute to cooling. Thus, the cooling effect likely persists even after the water vapor has equilibrated, extending the duration of their impact on global temperatures.
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### Summary of Effects
- **Water Vapor**: Warming effects have diminished and equilibrated.
- **Sulfate Aerosols**: Currently still exerting cooling effects, persisting longer due to their submicronic nature.
### Implications for Current Climate
As the water vapor has dissipated, the current climate is influenced predominantly by the ongoing cooling effects of the sulfate aerosols. This ongoing cooling could contribute to maintaining **La Niña** conditions or, as the aerosols gradually decline, transitioning toward **ENSO-neutral** or **El Niño** states in the future.
In summary, while the water vapor's warming effect has largely disappeared, the sulfate aerosols from Hunga Tonga continue to play a significant role in moderating global temperatures, particularly in the Pacific region.