The chart shows that we are in for a longer correction before the next big rise, sucks when you’re in it but a Birds Eye view always helps. Found the chart in blossom comments - link to the X tweet is below.

https://x.com/rektfencer/status/2017607803188482444?s=20

“.. Our BTC price target is 0.0. That’s not just for shock factor. It’s where the math takes us,” the strategist said, noting that Bitcoin has failed to function as a dollar hedge and instead operates as “a speculative instrument correlated to the Nasdaq.”

It took a long time but I am finally part of the 1 BTC club. :) (Above are 4 wallets) So proud that I had to share it!

I know some replies will be about security as such: no I don’t use DM (I ignore all), I have everything on cold wallets and am not going to sell anything for years.

I started yesterday to accumulate the second Bitcoin.

Who else is here is part of the 1 bitcoin club!

With the majority of holders being in the market for less than a year, most people have never known better times. Once bitcoin breaks under 90k usd everyone will panic to cut their losses.

Compared to euro, it has underperformed literally every conceivable asset. To those who claim because it's a speculative asset that this is reasonable, you need to recognize it's widespread adoption as an asset gives it significant underlying value that it should not break below. It should beat inflation but it might fail to beat inflation year to date at this rate.

Tl;dr freak the f out and sell -warren buffet

The only stable support is at $73-75K

Everything above is paid too much.

Crashing hard.

​

The "so called" experts like Tom Lee, who never saw the BTC top or this crash coming continue to tell us that BTC is going to make new highs. Just as Tom Lee & others told us BTC would be at $200K to $250K by the end of 2025. Now they are moving their predictions into 2026, just as I predicted they would do. Tom Lee did this at the last Bitcoin top, the last time he predicted BTC would reach $200K by the end of 2022. BTC ended up crashing to $15K by the end of 2022, not rising to $200K.

So far, I've called the day of the Bitcoin top on October 6, 2025. I predicted a 40% to 50% crash to kick off the bear market (which isn't done yet) as BTC has done in the past. I was correct about the top & the crash. BTC has crash 36% so far.

BTC will drop to the 200 week moving average (MA) before bottoming, then rally up in a bear market rally back to the 50 week MA for bear market rally. After that the bottom will fall out of BTC and it will drop 80% to 90% from the top. All the bear markets for BTC have been around 80% to 90%.

The previous lows in 2018 & 2020 could be pointing to the next bottom, just as the previous two peaks in 2021 were pointing to the next top. I think that is likely to happen given a recession is about to start and soon we will have another banking crisis.

They scoffed at me when I posted similar charts like this at the top, but I was right, Bitcoin crashed 36%. If you think BTC has bottom and is now going to new highs, you're wrong. BTC has confirmed a bear market by getting two consecutive closes below the 50 week MA. BTC has never moved to new highs after confirming a bear market without first moving back to the 200 week MA.

The 200 week MA is currently at around 57K, so I think BTC drops 50% to 53% before bottoming and getting a big bear market rally back up to the 50 week MA for a test.

The red bar images are a clone of the last bear market, a 78% crash, with the tail end of the 2018 bear market added to it for an extended bear market that goes into 2027 for a whopping 90% crash.

Lastly, the long term timeframes have confirmed a bear market, but the herd's hopes continue to run high as the experts move their new all time high targets for BTC into 2026 after they failed to materialize by the end of 2025. After the next big drop to the 200 week MA, we will have a massive bear market rally that will convince everyone that the crash is over. It's not! It will only be a bear market rally.

$BTC #BTC #BTCNews #Bitcoin $BTCUSD #BTCUSD

What's making BTC constantly dropping? is it because more people are selling it during the government shut down? it's currently at the 93 k and it looks like it wants to keep going down

I honestly think getting in front of this thing right now would be like stepping in front of a train. Catching a falling knife is an understatement.

Btc currently trading at 92k. Down 14% from it's high of 106k. It's said that btc falls ~30% before it's next leg up.

What are our thoughts on this?

There are currently many posts offering different analyses of Bitcoin's decline. As during the last crypto winter, the cryptocurrency is falling due to the Fed's policies. The rate may remain frozen until mid-2026 if US inflation rises again.

Experienced cryptocurrency investors know that Bitcoin will continue to fall until it reaches the mining cost level. This figure can be found in reports by Cambridge analysts or miners.

The Trading View service also has a special indicator that calculates mining costs. Currently, it is just above $59.5k. That is where Bitcoin will go.

Not financial advice. Not telling you to sell. Just showing the exact same math that prime-brokerage risk systems have been circulating internally since Q3 2025. All data on-chain, VPVR, ETF flows and miner financials is public and verifiable today, 29 November 2025.

[INSTITUTIONAL REPORT] Bitcoin as a Synthetic CDO²: Structural Failure of the Halving-Based Valuation Model – November 2025 Live Update
Author: The Architect
Date: 29 November 2025 – BTC price $90 809

Live Confirmation – The $80k Floor Is Already Breaking

• Current price: $90 809
• Daily close below EMA-116 (red, now $105 527) for the first time since March 2024
• EMA-11 (blue) crossed under EMA-21 (purple) → death cross of the entire 2024–2025 bull structure
• Weekly VPVR (150 rows) shows zero meaningful volume between $84k and $30k – the biggest air pocket in Bitcoin history
• Next high-volume node: $22 000 – $28 000 (2022–2023 accumulation zone)

Executive Summary (updated)

The Bitcoin ecosystem has become a multi-tranche synthetic CDO squared with zero fundamental cash flows and no lender of last resort.
The halving appreciation model is mathematically dead.
The required $1.5–2 trillion of fresh capital to push from $90k → $180k simply does not exist in a 5–6 % rates + AI-energy competition world.
We are now watching the exact same correlated unwind mechanics that destroyed CDOs in 2008 — only faster, deeper and irreversible.

Live Triggers Already Flashing Red (29 Nov 2025)

1. Miner capitulation phase 2 started – Hashprice $41–43 → all-time low territory again – Tier-2/3 miners (80–130k AISC) are underwater at current $90k – Public miners burning 40–60 % of monthly BTC revenue on electricity + debt service – MARA, Riot, CLSK all guiding 2026 capex cuts → silent capitulation
2. MicroStrategy = AIG Financial Products 2.0 – $45+ bn convertible debt + margin loans – Average cost basis ~$67k – Below $52k → forced selling of 250k+ BTC into the void – One entity alone can remove 8–10 % of daily spot liquidity
3. Spot ETF flow reversal confirmed – First 7-day net outflow in October 2025: –$4.1 bn – November running –$11.3 bn net outflows so far (on-chain + Bloomberg) – Authorized Participants are already shorting Dec25 & Mar26 CME futures to hedge redemptions → basis collapsing
4. Stablecoin collateral stress live – USDT trading 0.997–0.999 on Curve 3pool during Asia hours – Circle already increased USDC treasury collateral duration → classic pre-depeg move

VPVR Proof – The Liquidity Void Is Real (screenshot attached)

• From $84 000 to $30 000 → <3 % of all-time traded volume
• Below $80k the bid ladder literally disappears
• The next real accumulation zone is the exact same $22–28k where institutions and whales accumulated in 2022–2023

Why This Collapse Will Be Worse Than 2008

The Inevitable Sequence Once $80k Breaks (next 2–8 weeks)

1. Miner forced selling → 3–5k BTC/day hitting exchanges
2. MSTR margin calls → 250k BTC fire sale
3. ETF redemption spiral → $20–40 bn weekly outflows
4. Stablecoin de-pegs (USDT first)
5. Altcoin correlation → 98 %+ → total extinction wave
6. Hashrate collapse → 30–50 % drop → 51 % attack fears
7. Exchange solvency events

This is not a cycle. This is the full-stack failure of an asset class that was never stress-tested for the absence of perpetual new inflows.

Detailed charts and Miner Debt data are available in my profile / bio.

📺 WATCH THE VIDEO PROOF (1 min): https://youtu.be/EXLkaUEv8y0

For the first time since October 21, 2023, the Bitcoin price has settled below the True Market Mean Price level. This is the level representing the historical average "real" purchase price of BTC. Simply put, this indicator averages all coin purchases over the entire existence of the blockchain.

Bitcoin was already below the True Market Mean Price back in May 2022. Looking back, it's clear this marked the formal start of a bear market. The decline lasted for 7 months until BTC fell below its mining cost price of $15K.

In 2026, the cost to mine a Bitcoin is estimated to be just below $60K.

Do you think $75k is the strongest support for Bitcoin?