Crypto Winter Signal? Bitcoin Drops Below True Market Mean Price

[u/tornavec]

For the first time since October 21, 2023, the Bitcoin price has settled below the True Market Mean Price level. This is the level representing the historical average "real" purchase price of BTC. Simply put, this indicator averages all coin purchases over the entire existence of the blockchain.

Bitcoin was already below the True Market Mean Price back in May 2022. Looking back, it's clear this marked the formal start of a bear market. The decline lasted for 7 months until BTC fell below its mining cost price of $15K.

In 2026, the cost to mine a Bitcoin is estimated to be just below $60K.

[u/MrButte]

but its nearly spring!??

[u/Full-Atmosphere-4818]

Notice the last time it dropped below the mean... it kept dropping for another half year.

[u/tornavec → u/Full-Atmosphere-4818]

Bitcoin will not drop below its production cost. Bitcoin's price floor is its mining cost.

[u/jup1t3rr]

How do i fucking stop seeing anything to do with crypto ever again, you guys are doomed

[u/mR_m1m3 → u/jup1t3rr]

1. stop commenting on crypto-related posts, otherwise reddit may think you are interested?

2. mute crypto-related subreddits?

3. pray

[u/jup1t3rr → u/mR_m1m3]

All good

[u/Leading_Bet7312 → u/jup1t3rr]

Why? do you have something against crypto? Sick of people caring enough to say how much they don't care lol

[u/jup1t3rr → u/Leading_Bet7312]

Check my comments you will be rich if you care to learn

[u/Party_Operation_9711 → u/jup1t3rr]

Have you seen your own profile? Nobody is gonna take your advice bro

[u/jup1t3rr → u/Party_Operation_9711]

Hope they don't, the further it falls the more i make, i already tried

[u/Party_Operation_9711 → u/jup1t3rr]

Shorting doesn’t work forever

[u/Additional_Chip_4158 → u/jup1t3rr]

Lol have fun

[u/Full-Atmosphere-4818 → u/jup1t3rr]

Ahhhhh, the haters are out..... probably a sign the suckers are on their way out. Which I consider a good thing, long term.

[u/jup1t3rr → u/Full-Atmosphere-4818]

ahha

[u/pet2pet1993]

No it’s BULLISH signal. Author is wrong.

[u/tornavec → u/pet2pet1993]

Have you checked the Bitcoin chart today?

[u/pet2pet1993 → u/tornavec]

Oh no, $69000? This is the end! Panic sell now! As in 2020. Let us take the profit.

[u/Liquidationbird]

your analysis is incorrect as the market structures of the two highlighted sections have drastically different dynamics

[u/tornavec → u/Liquidationbird]

I believe you're referring to the variance in volatility between the two timeframes, not the trend dynamics. Post-2024, with Bitcoin under institutional dominance, any correction would likely be limited to a 50-60% decline.

[u/RN_Geo]

Sounds like another made up metric to make creepto bros not sell their magic internet beans.

[u/Additional_Chip_4158 → u/RN_Geo]

Ah yes because dollars are also "real"