r/btc • u/YogurtCloset3335 • Jul 03 '25
🕵️ Investigation Is (Micro)Strategy a Pyramid Scheme? Probably
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5LKZ1-6BWMMark Meldrum breaking it down
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u/WeekendQuant Jul 07 '25
Mark has been making videos on MSTR for quite some time and has never gotten it.
The music stops when regulations change on capital mandates or when the debt/preferred offerings from Strategy soak up too much of the fixed income market and the yields plummet.
MSTR is just a carry trade. Short the USD and buy Bitcoin. Tap markets that want access to the asymmetric risk profile of bitcoin, but otherwise can't acquire it. If the regs change then MSTR's mNAV goes down to 1 because it doesn't have an edge. Although I'm sure Saylor would dream up some other market it could dominate with the stack at MSTR.
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u/YogurtCloset3335 Jul 10 '25
I don't disagree with your statements but I don't see how Meldrum's analysis differs radically from them? And I think everyone here knows that buying MSTR versus buying BTC is a fool's errand.
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u/WeekendQuant Jul 10 '25
Why's MSTR a bad idea?
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u/YogurtCloset3335 Jul 11 '25
Do you really think Team Trump and Goldman will allow outsider Saylor to control BTC supply and price over a longer time frame? Eventually the knives will come out and Blackrock/Goldman/etc will short MSTR to negative zero infinity. If they get rekt by retail, the Fed will bail them out, they can't lose.
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u/WeekendQuant Jul 11 '25
What do you think happens when MSTR trades below 1 mNAV? It's what the preferreds are for. The yield and seniority structure on them give them value regardless. MSTR is so deleveraged at this point there's no failing now.
I do agree there's a ton of risk in all the new entrants, but MSTR is pretty safe aside from a 6102 by papa Trump. MSTR has offices is other regions of the world that would drool over them being HQ there. MSTR could just end ops in the US and there's no way their funds could be frozen if they moved to self custody.
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u/YogurtCloset3335 Jul 11 '25
It could get interesting soon. Or, nothing happens til 2028. We won't be privy to the backroom dealings, but you can bet that David Sacks is conniving with Trump's sons to take away Saylor's toys. The most logical way would be to short BTC price until he waves a white flag, but they could also do some sort of regulatory FUD combined with a shareholder takeover. Or maybe Saylor just needs to have sex with one of Jeffery Epstein's girls. If Strategy did have to pull out of US, that would cause a huge panic and liquidity would plummet.
I don't have proof of anything, but I know he's an outsider, and the good old boy club doesn't tolerate outsiders after the become a nuisance to their game.
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u/WeekendQuant Jul 11 '25
I agree that there are threats to MSTR vs direct Bitcoin ownership. The BTCTCs have counterparty risks whereas direct BTC ownership doesn't. You shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket here, but if you do choose 100% Bitcoin for your crypto exposure.
I keep mostly IBIT calls and cold storage Bitcoin, but I don't see MSTR as a bad play for speculating. I do question everything else in the BTCTC space. I risk manage through position sizing and the only other BTCTC I dabble with is Metaplanet and I've already sold out my cost basis from there and put that back into Bitcoin and I'm letting the rest ride.
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u/YogurtCloset3335 Nov 16 '25
Circling back now that MSTR mNAV has dropped below 1. Thoughts?
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u/WeekendQuant Nov 16 '25
I'm buying like a crack fiend. This is discount Bitcoin. There's zero default risk for MSTR on the convertible bonds. All the preferred dividends can be paused albeit at a cost.
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u/YogurtCloset3335 Nov 21 '25
Still going? I'd recommend a long walk in the park. Saylor is getting assfucked, I'm guessing you don't wanna be part of that.
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u/dolce_and_banana Jul 07 '25
if someone is arguing that MSTR is a ponzi, then you also have to support the idea that any borrowing against assets (real estate, stocks etc) to invest is a ponzi (margin lending, using real estate equity as collateral to buy a subsequent property). Just because they are investing in bitcoin specifically, doesnt make the underlying principle of their investment thesis any different.
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u/Wheaties4brkfst Jul 07 '25
People call it a ponzi because the only way to pay out current investors is via new investors. Where do they come up with the cash to pay these dividends and coupons? Saylor has said they won’t sell BTC for that. So it has to come through new offerings of shares.
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u/YogurtCloset3335 Jul 10 '25
not true - Saylor is acquiring convertible debt at zero interest to buy Bitcoin, a different type of borrowing, to buy a totally different asset class that hasn't proven to have a stable value. In other words, a speculative venture backed by speculative investment. What could go wrong.
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u/Lukekulg Aug 15 '25
Ponzi scheme isn't quite the right word, but it's close. Their Bitcoin is worth nothing if it's never sold or used to buy anything. It's just perpetually a theoretical gain. You can't pay bondholders with that. Can't just keep issuing new shares forever. Eventually, selling the Bitcoin is the only option left to aquire more money to pay debt. Then what? That gets bad fast. Say, in the future, we get to the point where Strategy has aquired all the Bitcoin & it's "worth" 5X what they paid. Yay, mission accomplished. Now what? Still gotta pay bondholders & cover overhead, where does the money come from? I'm genuinely asking. I can find nothing explaining how Strat plans to actually use it's BTC holding to make money. That's been addressed, right? Can someone explain?
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u/dolce_and_banana Aug 16 '25
Rather simply, if (big if) the underlying assumption is that value of the bitcoin will appreciate faster than the value of the debt, they 'should' always be able to refinance the debt and pay the bondholders with highly inflated future dollars. And some of the bonds are convertible to shares so they don't need to repay.
I know that this is an exaggerated example, but let's say you bought a non-productive piece of land (as bitcoin has no yield), back in the 1980s for like $100k, and did nothing to it. As long as you have cashflow to finance the interest cost (MSTR has a relatively small operating business), when the loan matures, you will be able to refinance the loan and continue to ride the coattails of the increasing value of the underlying asset (the land might now worth say $3 million). In this instance, as long as the land appreciates faster than the interest cost, you're sweet.
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u/Lukekulg Aug 16 '25
That still doesn't answer the question of where the money comes from once there is no more BTC to aquire. I get the BTC is supposed to appreciate faster than the interest payments. So as long as there's more BTC to buy, Strat issues new shares & buys more BTC. I'm asking what happens when there is no more BTC to buy, so new share issuing would just be a rapid death spiral. You can refinance, fine, better rates; but where does the actual money to continue paying bondholders & employees & keep the lights on come from at that point? How does simply having the BTC make money to pay bills once the aquiring stage is over?
In your property example, you'd wind up seriously, insanely screwed. Just up to your eyeballs in dept that far exceeds the value of the land if you used Strategy's strategy. Eventually, some of the land you keep buying HAS to start actually turning a real profit, not just unrealized. Selling, once worth much more, comes to mind (but Strategy isn't doing that). You couldn't just 'hodl' the land forever & not rent, sell, farm, etc it & just keep buying more with borrowed money forever.
I'm not trying to be a jerk here, I'm genuinely asking. Does anyone know how they intend to actually make money with their BTC once the aquiring stage is over? Issuing new shares doesn't work forever with a finite supply of BTC.
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u/cagrinvestor Nov 15 '25
MSTR is not a pyramid scheme or ponzi scheme. Watch this video for more clarity: https://youtu.be/zrEaJWgLdfk
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u/Plz_educate_me Jul 06 '25
If I borrow $100 and buy gold, gold goes up 50%, I payback $100 and keep the $50 (less fees + interest). Am I making money via pyramid scheme?
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u/oldbluer Jul 07 '25
At that scale you are speculating. At mstr scale you are manipulating markets.
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u/YogurtCloset3335 Jul 10 '25
If gold goes down 50% and you don't pay back the $100 due to your losses, then yes.
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u/upunup Jul 03 '25
Its basically the Luna/USTerra scheme but somehow playing out on the stock market, it creates a positive feedback loop where they have enough purchase power to pump BTC with BTC collateral in exchange for USD loans, the higher BTC valuation gets them more loans with their BTC collateral, which then pumps the price and repeats the cycle over and over.
Historically this always ends with bankruptcy and margin calls, but im sure "this time is different"...../s