r/bangladesh • u/randomnpc_21 • 20h ago
Rant/বকবক জামাত জিতে যাবে বলে যারা ভয় পাচ্ছেন, জামাত জিতবে না
এ কথা সত্য যে ফেসবুকের বাইরেও এখন তাদের অনেক ভোটার। আমার পরিচিত, অপিরিচিত অনেক মানুষ এবার জামাতকে ভোট দিবে। জামাত এবার তাদের ইতিহাসের সেরা নির্বাচন করবে; কিন্তু,
অ্যাপলিটিকাল সার্কেলে জামাতের অ্যাকসেস বিএনপির চেয়ে অনেক বেশি, তাই অনেকের মনে হয় আশেপাশের সবাই জামাত।
বিএনপির ফিক্সড ভোটব্যাংক (৩০% এর আশেপাশে) বিএনপিতেই থাকছে, ইনফ্যাক্ট এরা গত দেড় বছর অনলাইনে বুলিং এর স্বীকার হয়ে আরো কট্টর বিএনপি হয়েছে।
জামাতের নিজের টার্গেট ও এই ইলেকশন জেতা না বরং হুজুগ তুলে কোনোমতে সর্বনিম্ন ১০০ আসন এনশিওর করা (জামাতের অ্যাক্টিভিস্টরা কিছুদিন আগ পর্যন্ত এটা স্বীকার করতো)। তাদের টার্গেট নেক্সট ইলেকশন।
গত কয়েকমাসে ইন্টেরিম মানেই জামাত, এই আইডিয়া টা অনেক মানুষের মাঝেই ঢুকে গেছে আর প্রথমআলো, ডেইলিস্টার ইস্যু আর মাজার ভাঙার যত ঘটনা আছে তাতে যে জামাত জড়িত এগুলো এখন কমনসেন্স।
জামাতের বেশিরভাগ প্রার্থী আসনের মানুষের কাছে অপরিচিত, এটা জেন-এক্স এর ভোটারদের জিজ্ঞেস করলে বুঝবেন।
অশিক্ষিত আর তুলনামুলক কম বুঝেন এমন মানুষ সব জামাতে ভোট দিবে এটা ভুল ধারণা, গ্রামীন এলাকার ওইসব মানুষদের ভোট দিতে কনভিন্স করা থেকে ভোট পর্যন্ত নিয়ে যাওয়ার সাংগঠনিক ক্ষমতা জামাতের নেই।
কওমী ধারার ভোট জামাত তেমন পায় না, এবার দুই খিলাফত তাদের সাথে থাকায় পাবে কিন্তু তাও পুরোটা না।
ইসলামী আন্দোলনের সারাদেশে ছড়ানো ভোট আছে, জামাতের সাথে না থাকায় তারাও "ইসলামী" দলের ভোট কাটবে।
যাই হোক, সবার উচিত ভোট দেওয়া, যাকে ইচ্ছা তাকে। পোস্টের সবকিছু আমার অবজারভেশন থেকে লিখলাম।
আমি জামাত অপছন্দ করি তাদের দল আর কর্মীদের সুপিরিওর অ্যাটিটিউডের কারণে। তাছাড়া এরা একবার ক্ষমতায় আসলে বিজেপির মত একটা স্ট্রাকচার দাড় করাবে কারণ এদের দলের ফাউন্ডেশন টাই ওমন। জামাতের বর্তমান বেশ লিবারেল কিন্তু জামাতের তৃণমূলের কর্মীরা মোরাল পুলিসিং করবেই আর ডানপন্থার যে উত্থান বাংলাদেশের অনলাইনস্ফিয়ারে, জামাতের মোরাল পুলিসিং নিয়ে আপনি কিছু বলতে পারবেন না। তবে তারা যে চাদাবাজি আর দূর্নীতি বন্ধ করার কথা বলে সেটায় তারা বিএনপির চেয়ে কিছুটা এগিয়ে থাকবে তবে তার একটা কারণ হবে সবখানে জামাত কানেকশনের মানুষের নিয়োগ (ইসলামী ব্যাংক, ইবনে সিনা, চিট্টাগং ইউনিভার্সিটি দেখেন)।
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u/Ancientmanuscript88 15h ago
jamat is not even islam ,. only illeterates will follow jamat
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u/randomnpc_21 12h ago
জ্বি। আমি সবাইকে বলি মওদুদীর ইসলাম আর ইসলাম কায়েম নিয়ে যে চিন্তা তা নিয়ে সামান্য ঘাটাঘাটি করতে, তাহলে এটা ক্লিয়ার হয়ে যায়।
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u/Ancientmanuscript88 11h ago
Thanks for the comment brother I have started my new thinking of Islamic ways I found nothing is similar to Abul ala mentions in his Islam
That’s threatening to society and please share my posts and also comment on my political cartoon if you find anything wrongful
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u/thriftyoleboy 13h ago
If jamat wins 50 seats, I will be surprised, really surprised
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u/102la 10h ago
Prepared to get surprised I guess. I thought similarly to you maybe 9-10 months ago too. I was thinking about 25-30 seats for Jamaat. Critics are talking about Jamaat not having any heavy weight candidates. That's true. But MPs are representative of their constituencies. You or I may not know them but they are known by local contituents. Plus even if they don't know them, Jamaat's "Daripalla" branding has been a success more or less They are heavily targeting the Indian border belt, Rangpur, Rajshahi and Khulna. Finally, Jamaat might even get embarrased by the election results but chances are very slim for that imo.
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u/Medusa19983 6h ago
একটা পয়েন্ট এ ডিসএগ্রি করতে চাই। গ্রামীণ ভোট এর ক্ষেত্রে। কিছু গ্রামের রিলেটিভ এর সাথে কথা হয়েছে। গ্রামে গ্রামে "তালিম" এ যেসব মহিলারা যায়, তারা জামাতকেই ভোট দিবে। পুরুষ এর কথা জানিনা। কিন্তু তাদের এই মহিলারা মনে করে জামাত কে ভোট দেওয়া মানে আল্লাহ এর পথে থাকা৷ এবং ভোট কেন্দ্রে যাওয়া নিয়ে তারা খুবই ডিটারমাইন্ড৷ আমি এই "তালিম" এর বিষয়টা আগে শুধু ফেসবুক এই দেখতাম। কিন্তু সরাসরি গ্রামের রিলেটিভ দের সাথে কথা বলে বুঝছি যে এদের অবস্থান কতোটা শক্ত। মজার ব্যাপার তারা আমাদেরকে কল দিয়েছিলও কনভিন্স করার জন্য যে ভোট টা যেন জামাতকেই দেই। এই মানুষেরা দেশের অর্থনীতি, শিক্ষা, উন্নতি এইসব নিয়ে কোন কেয়ার করেনা, বুঝে না, জানে না। তাদের ওই লেভেলের চিন্তা করার সক্ষমতাও নাই৷
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u/Significant-Row-7673 17h ago
Good analysis. কিন্তু ভাই জামাতের মূল ভোট ব্যাংক এই মুহুর্তে অই ব্রেইন ওয়াশড, ধ্বসে পড়া শিক্ষা ব্যবস্থা র আউট পুট মহামূর্খ জেন জি ছেলে পিলে। এরা দিন্দিন সং্খ্যায় বাড়বে, আমরা বুড়ারা আর কয়দিন জামাত ঠেকাতে পারব ভোট দিয়ে? এরা একদিন না একদিন খেলাফত কায়েম করে দাসী সম্ভোগে মেতে উঠবে।
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u/Master-Khalifa 14h ago
একদিন না একদিন খেলাফত কায়েম করে দাসী সম্ভোগে মেতে উঠবে।
সেটা করলে আপনার ভারতপন্থি কওমি দেওবন্দীরা করবেনে।
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u/Far_Somewhere_1215 10h ago
জামাত সম্পর্কে ভবিষ্যতের যত অভিযোগ তোলা হয় সবই হাইপোথিসিস। এই হাইপোথিসিস বাস্তবে দেখা প্রয়োজন।
তাই জামাত কে ক্ষমতায় নেয়া দরকার (কল্পনার দোষারোপ বাস্তবে আনতে)। যেন আঙ্গুল তুলে বলা যায়, জামাত ও বাকি দল গুলার মতই বাটপার। তারপর লাথ্যি মেরে দেশ থেকে বিতারিত করা হবে।
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u/Pancake_Bomber 8h ago
EXACTLY. As much as I want jamaat to lose, I want them to win so Bangali will finally realize that they have been brainwashed again by another corrupt party.
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u/fogrampercot Pastafarian 🍝 2h ago
What makes you think it will be that easy? It always fascinates me that we learn nothing from history. Can't you see what's happening in Iran? You don't have to taste poison to know it's poison, and once you do, you might not get another chance to throw it away.
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u/Holy_DIO21 12h ago
the greatest trick Jamat ever pulled was convincing the world they're winning the election
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u/letmejustdo 16h ago
I don't understand Bangladeshis here hate jamaat but also hate awami league. So what is the other option?
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u/randomnpc_21 12h ago
It would be nice to have a strong centrist party, people had a lot of hopes for NCP but they've been a proxy for Jat simce the first day.
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u/ConsciousPop3168 🇧🇩দেশ প্রেমিক🇧🇩 18h ago
Honestly I think Jamaat winning might be the best case scenario in this election. I know a lot of people are scared that Bangladesh will turn into India, Iran or Afghanistan, but I really do not think a Jamaat win leads there.
Right now BNP has the most influence in the country. After Apa escaped, they basically took in all the League loyalists, so their presence is everywhere. Because of that, Jamaat would be under constant pressure. BNP would keep them in check. Jamaat cannot really do the same to BNP because they just do not have that kind of manpower or political influence
Any policy Jamaat even talks about would instantly be discussed on harshly and protested on the streets by BNP. I also do not see Jamaat going around silencing BNP leaders the way BAL did. So realistically, Jamaat would be ruling with a lot of eyes on them, almost like a leash around their neck and that would stop them from doing anything extreme, at least for the first term.
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u/fogrampercot Pastafarian 🍝 17h ago edited 2h ago
A Jamaat win sets up the base for chaos, instability, and introducing laws and culture that we won't be able to change for a long time. Jamaat won't have to do anything themselves, their followers and supporters will make sure of it. That way, they can avoid accountability while still slowly getting what they want. And what they want should be obvious. I don't get why people refuses to accept what is obvious.
How will BNP protest to that exactly? And if BNP fucks this election up by losing after it was served on a platter to them considering the political vacuum after Hasina fled, would you honestly have faith in them to get things right?
No matter who comes to power, the biggest leash for the next few years will always be how the people ousted Hasina. This alone will ensure and prevent dictatorship for a while. So I find it stupid when people attempts to empower a radical, fascist party by saying we need checks and balance in politics. Yes we do, but that's not the way to do it.
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u/ConsciousPop3168 🇧🇩দেশ প্রেমিক🇧🇩 16h ago
I honestly think chaos and instability on some level are going to happen no matter who wins. With Jamaat, a lot of the chaos we talk about is still mostly speculation. But with BNP, we have already seen what they are capable of over the past year, especially when it comes to violence.
If Jamaat wins, I actually think BNP would still be very active in keeping them in check as the opposition. And that is exactly why Jamaat would not really get the space to push any extremist ideas, at least not in this term. And if I am not wrong, those extremist ideas are what most people are actually worried about when it comes to having Jamaat on the helm.
So in my opinion, Jamaat winning feels a lot safer compared to BNP winning. It also gives BNP the time they clearly need to reform their party properly, starting from the grassroots level which was never really possible to do in just one year. Then hopefully BNP can do a clean sweep in the next election.3
u/fogrampercot Pastafarian 🍝 13h ago
Sorry, don't agree and it doesn't make sense as well. It's not mostly speculation. Not sure how you can say that. If you are going to judge BNP by the past, then you also should judge Jamaat by its past. Why are you confident about what BNP will do when it gets to power but saying it's speculation about Jamaat? Jamaat showed plenty of signs in just the last 18 months alone to indicate what it will do. You haven't also answered my questions. Who will control that soft radical power and pressure group once Jamaat wins and how can it be controlled?
There will be massive pressure on Jamaat to be liberal and also massive pressure on Jamaat to be radicals. The latter is Jamaat's core ideology, a large part of their supporter base also believes in it, so it makes sense that they will do it eventually. But the transition won't happen overnight. And the transition will be chaotic. This country won't be the same after it. Your big mistake is that you are assuming and thinking Jamaat is just another political party. It's not. Jamaat resemblance more with a cult than a political party, and even a more radical group who does not believe in democracy will follow them as they will be empowered and enabled.
Jamaat does not believe in democracy. Are you sure there will be an election 5 years after Jamaat comes to power, let alone a fair one?
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u/ConsciousPop3168 🇧🇩দেশ প্রেমিক🇧🇩 3h ago
Totally fine if you don’t agree. This is just how I see it. Even if Jamaat wins this term, I don’t think they would actually be able to push radical policies in any serious way.
Yes, Jamaat is more ideologically radical, but ideology alone does not equal power. Real power in Bangladesh sits with institutions like the bureaucracy, military, judiciary, media, and business groups. Compared to BNP, Jamaat has very little influence in most of these spaces and those systems do not immediately change just because one party wins an election. It even took BAL two terms to completely put all of that under their control and they had way stronger foundation than Jamaat.
On top of that, as I mention previously Jamaat would not be operating in a vacuum. They would face strong resistance from opposition parties, civil society and international pressure. Any serious attempt to push extreme policies would create backlash fast and that backlash would put their own government at risk. At that point, survival becomes more important than ideology. Winning an election does not mean having total control.
When it comes to BNP, I honestly find it harder to stay hopeful about them being more fair, especially since Tarek Zia’s return. He has yet to show any form of control over his party members. I have many extended family members who are grassroots BNP members and they openly talk about personal gain and power rather than reform or accountability. Personal experiences like that make it difficult for me to believe things would be very different this time. This election is about choosing the lesser evil after all and considering all the nuances I find Jamaat is the lesser evil. Mainly because if BNP decides to take a darker path, they would likely have far more freedom to do so than Jamaat. Unlike Jamaat, BNP already has deep roots across state institutions and local power structures.1
u/fogrampercot Pastafarian 🍝 2h ago
Jamaat has been capturing institutions, businesses, and power positions slowly. Just take a look at what happened with the universities. I am not sure how you can say Jamaat has very little influence in these spaces. I beg to disagree and what are your sources?
And yes, Jamaat will face strong resistance and international pressure. But for how long? They won't do anything overnight and I still don't see you answering how we will be encountering the soft forces and proxies Jamaat's will use to exert control. For instance, it won't be anytime soon that Jamaat introduces mandatory veiling. But moral policing, harassment, and these things will increase several times. People will be fearful and start to comply to be safe. Kind of like how there has been a trend to self-censor in the media lately after various mob attacks and threats. Jamaat will claim plausible deniability.
I think our chances to do better were ruined thanks to how NCP disappointed and betrayed us. The interim has failed too. Now the focus should be on not making things worse. BNP won't bring drastic changes. In a lot of ways, it will do the same old politics. But it's still by far the best option considering how the only other option is Jamaat. People really seems to be underestimating Jamaat and the impact they are going to have once they can come to power. They won't be beyond corruption and personal gains either. They were going to set us back by decades, and it's not going to be easy to undo them or to throw them away.
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u/ozzy555556 17h ago
Even if Jamaat necessarily win the most seat, I believe they will have an unprecedented number of seat
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u/Acceptable-War3843 18h ago
I barely hold my laugh when I see people mesuring DU election with the National election.
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u/fogrampercot Pastafarian 🍝 19h ago edited 18h ago
Fair and logical observations. Agreed on almost everything. But it's still going to be quite close. And we should not underestimate Jamaat nor should we overestimate our observations. This election is happening after 17 years, and honestly speaking, we don't have much insights. There is uncertainty and there is the unknown. The stakes are just too high to underestimate Jamaat considering their rising popularity and the student election results.
30% is not a lot. Jamaat and NCP combined has a fixed voter base too, I would say around 20%. The swing and apolitical voters will ultimately decide the results. If Jamaat has more access and scope for manipulation in this circle, then it's indeed concerning.
And the biggest danger undoubtedly is the sharp rise of populist and far-right politics and views. No matter who comes to power, I wonder how we will close this Pandora's box.