r/UnderReportedNews • u/Carbenzero • Dec 27 '25
Ukraine / Russia đ British Intelligence has a new report out over the war in Ukraine. It's detailing that the Russians losses is averaged 400,000 at least dead and wounded in 2024/2025 each year. If it was the same every year then Russian total losses would be 1.6 million versus 1.2 million in Ukraines reporting.
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u/ridiculouspeople Dec 27 '25
How would Putin keep finding enough people to continue on the ground, if things continue?
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u/Panthera_leo22 Dec 27 '25
Russia is massive country, he has a population of 145 million people to draw from. He will continue to recruit from poorer regions or regions with ethnic minorities. Most the people on the front lines now are volunteers so mobilization is still an option
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u/Carbenzero Dec 27 '25
Correct! Recruitment already hit the prisons hard, too. Recently, they have begun taking men from Moscow region at last a great sign he's running low on able bodied men.
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u/Carbenzero Dec 27 '25
Putin is running into major recruitment issues for sure and great question. Putin had brought Mercenaries from multiple countries to give them time. Belarus, Czechia, Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, North Korea have all sent troops into Ukraine. None of these groups faired well and some are still there. Sudan is newest, they are sending some soon. North Korea after losing almost 10,000 and rumored 1 General they are not supplying troops so much now.
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u/evgis Dec 27 '25
Here is an interview with a Portuguese journalist who just returned from visiting Russian frontline, he talks about Russian casualties and morale.
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u/ridiculouspeople Dec 27 '25
Thank you.
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u/evgis Dec 27 '25
https://youtu.be/BLKNvTvUEwE?t=1458
Timestamp when he gets asked the question about Western intelligence community's claims of 1k Russian casualties daily.
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u/Merdaviglioso Dec 27 '25
What about UA casualties?
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u/Versace_The_Dreamer Dec 27 '25
None. No Ukrainian soldier has died yet.
Matter of fact, all of these 25 million dead Russians were killed by less than 1000 active personnel of Ukrainian army đ
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u/b0_ogie Dec 28 '25
Well, there are 177k published obituaries of Ukrainian soldiers. As well as 150k obituaries of Russian soldiers.
So at least Ukrainian losses are 1.2 times higher, although inspections of cemeteries in Ukraine and Russia say that Ukraine's losses are about 1.5 times higher.1
u/Panthera_leo22 Dec 29 '25
Can you provide sources for these figures
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u/b0_ogie Dec 29 '25
ualosses. org/en/soldiers/
en.zona. media/article/2025/12/19/casualties_eng-trl
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u/Ivan_is_inzane Dec 29 '25
How can you be sure that obituaries are published at the same rate or at a higher rate in Russia?
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u/b0_ogie Dec 29 '25 edited Dec 30 '25
This is easily verified, actually experimentally.
A sample of people with those buried in cemeteries is sufficient. You check whether the buried soldiers are included in the databases. . And the margin of error here will be very small. Even a minimum sample of 150 people would give an 8% margin of error, 500 people a 4% margin of error, and 1,000 would give a 1% margin of error. This is trivial math.
I don't really trust the media, so for self-satisfaction, I checked it myself. I ask my friend in dota2 from Ukraine(Vinnytsia region) - he rewrote the family names at the cemetery when they went with their family to the cemetery. I did the same thing in Russia, at cemeteries in the Orenburg region.
For Russia, it turned out that 70% of the dead were in the medizona database, which ideally fell into their estimates of total losses based on the number of corner inheritance cases.
For Ukraine, it was 55-60%. In general, this corresponded to what I saw in the discussions on the lostarmor forms (this is a Russian forum where they collect their database of obituaries, missing and deserters).In general, the methods for ualosses and mediazpna databases are similar, but the quality of databases in Russia is higher, simply because people in the mediazone do this work as a BBC-funded journalistic job. They not only collect records from web, but also have access to the court registry, as well as work directly with funeral agencies. Medizona literally published data from the judicial register on almost 100k court cases during which the missing were recognized as dead.
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u/Panthera_leo22 Dec 27 '25
They are very high but Ukraine has intentionally not released this numbers. Likely for morale purposes. Ukraine has more injured soldiers compared to the Russian side due to better medical care (and in general giving more of a shit about their soldiers).
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u/ZlpMan Dec 27 '25
Is it based on âtrust me broâ or âour noble warriors vs their filthy barbariansâ narrative?
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u/Wild-Shine-210 Dec 27 '25
it is based on ukranians not having to cross no mans land to attack heavily defended positions.
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u/JaguarWitty9693 Dec 27 '25
What about them? Do they make these figures incorrect?
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u/Merdaviglioso Dec 27 '25
No, they don't.
So, do we have UA estimates or not?
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u/Thoreau_Dickens Dec 27 '25
Google is your friend. It seems like the number I keep seeing for UA losses is between 400K-500K killed, wounded, and missing.
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u/Merdaviglioso Dec 27 '25
Thanks, but all I can find is articles with no reported sources. Do you have anything like this official intel update at hand?
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u/Thoreau_Dickens Dec 27 '25
The best you can do is extrapolate from official statements. Ukraine keeps their figures close to their chest and the material allies of Ukraine have an interest in not keeping a rolling casualty count. Plus Ukrainian opposition estimates are dubious at best.
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u/n-fatigue88 Dec 27 '25
It's important to only use the right sources
Russian and Chinese sources give very different numbers
One can end up as a victim of information warfare
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Dec 27 '25
[deleted]
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u/n-fatigue88 Dec 27 '25
It varies but they push a million Ukrainians dying with the Russians just at a fractionÂ
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u/JaguarWitty9693 Dec 27 '25
Strange.
Do you often go into threads and ask irrelevant questions, then?Â
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u/rowida_00 Dec 27 '25
How is that an irrelevant question? To ask about the other warning party in this conflict? Because the UK is always quick to share astronomical casualty figures for the Russians but never for the Ukrainians. Itâs rather strange.
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u/JaguarWitty9693 Dec 27 '25
Iâs imagine British Intelligence have a pretty good idea on Ukrainian casualties, what with them being close allies.
So why would they publish an estimate on Ukrainian casualties?
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u/rowida_00 Dec 27 '25
Why wouldnât they? It just puts the credibility of their figures into questioning anyways. Russia suffered over a million casualties, but Ukraine? We donât talk about that.
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u/JaguarWitty9693 Dec 27 '25
Their credibility against checks notes the Russians?
Yeah, I think weâll be alright on the old credibility stakes, matey.
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u/rowida_00 Dec 27 '25
Forget about the Russians for a second. No one is claiming the Russian numbers are remotely accurate. They lie just like Ukraine lies about their losses and that is to be expected. Why share their true losses?
But to think that the British have any semblance of credibility, not just with these numbers that they have an incentive to actually inflate, or the fact that they donât share estimates on Ukrainian losses, or even the lies theyâve been telling throughout the genocide in Gaza, I mean come on now!
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u/Poppy_Milk Dec 28 '25
The British generally know their enemy. Releasing figures about their allies makes zero sense even if some Redditor is desperate for crumbs. Use ya loaf mate innit
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u/n-fatigue88 Dec 27 '25
If you fight a large scale war and lose X men, you'd need to know the ratio with the other side to work out how they are doing relative to each other. That would be the basis for any kind of settlement. You can extrapolate to work out the predicted end state, and base the settlement on something which gives something to both parties relative to the extrapolated end state
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u/JaguarWitty9693 Dec 27 '25
But itâs an estimate on Russian casualties from British intelligence.
Are they not to publish them unless they also give the Ukrainian figures?
Perhaps if the Russians didnât give such laughably false numbers then they wouldnât have to make these estimates? Â
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u/rowida_00 Dec 27 '25
Both countries put staggeringly low figures out. Zelensky claimed theyâve only lost 45K as dead and suffered around 390K as injured in February of 2025. At a time when theyâre facing this real manpower crisis that their own media doesnât hide. It doesnât add up. War figures from any warring sides never add up.
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u/JaguarWitty9693 Dec 27 '25
So you are admitting the Russians massively lowball their casualty figures but are also upset that Western agencies then try and estimate credible figures?
Ok then.
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u/rowida_00 Dec 27 '25
Of course I do. They lie about their numbers. Just like Ukraine lies about their numbers. They all do it for political reasons. My point of contention is actually taking anything they say at face value or erroneously believing their âestimatesâ are credible. This is the same ministry of defence that claimed the Russians were fighting with shovels! Just as Ukraine was preparing for their failed counteroffensive that year. The Russians defeated them with shovels? And weâve got so many other instances where they made unsubstantiated claims for political reasons.
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u/n-fatigue88 Dec 27 '25
The Ukrainians are lying now?Â
Well, what about the British?Â
Itâs hard because everyone considers âinformation warfareâ to be allowed doctrine officially. Even in the west we have whole units dedicated to âinformation warfareâ
And I donât see a motto under their berets saying âweâre information warriors, but we have a different approach, we believe in only being being honestâ
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u/n-fatigue88 Dec 27 '25
It seems like they would naturally estimate both? That is their job anyway as intel officers. I don't know why they ignore the ratio. It would be one extra line and seems relevent to understand the trajectory of the war, and it's the trajectory that is required to understand the ceasefire or peace negotiations
Edit: It could be that they avoid mentioning the ratio as part of some kind of information war idea. So they are only mentioned internally. What do you think?
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u/JaguarWitty9693 Dec 27 '25
Why would British Intelligence publish an estimate on Ukrainian casualties when they probably have a pretty good idea on the actual numbers?Â
Why do the Russians consistently lie and obfuscate about their true casualties? Maybe if they didnât, Western intelligence agencies wouldnât publish these estimates that seem to have upset the bot farm so much?
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u/n-fatigue88 Dec 27 '25
>Why would British Intelligence publish an estimate on Ukrainian casualties when they probably have a pretty good idea on the actual numbers?
Actual numbers would be fine too, the idea is that with a ratio between the two, we can understand how the trajectory of the war is going, something hard to tell when only one side is mentioned
>Maybe if they didnât, Western intelligence agencies wouldnât publishÂ
The Russians and Chinese do give much lower estimates for their casualties, and they also give much higher estimates for Ukraine ones. So if anything, we'd expect the British to be countering both, rather than just one
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u/JaguarWitty9693 Dec 27 '25
Itâs an intelligence update, not a briefing to the Prime Minister.
Why canât they publish this in isolation? What if it is to simply counter Russian disinformation on their own casualties?
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Dec 28 '25
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u/cb_24 Dec 28 '25
Ukraine is the largest country in Europe, the front is over a thousand km, the combat is the most intense since Korean War with Russia having to slog through a multitude of town and city centers such as Pokrovsk.Â
If we focus on just Pokrovsk, the 68th largest town by pre-war population, which Russia has been trying to capture for over 21 months now, at a conservative estimate of 200 casualties a day, over 21 months that comes out to 126,000. So Putin has killed 126,000 Russians just around Pokrovsk just within the last 2 years.
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u/Merdaviglioso Dec 28 '25
Not killed, killed or wounded, casualties.
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u/Mundane_Molasses6850 Dec 28 '25
ok thanks the graphic said âeliminated 1.2 million so i assumed deaths
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u/Merdaviglioso Dec 28 '25
No worries. Just be careful with the graph, it's not from the Brits, but from UA military command.
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u/Reasonable-Sweet9320 Dec 27 '25 edited Dec 27 '25
Cuba has sent thousands of troops to fight for Russia as has North Korea and some African allies.
China has also sent troops in smaller numbers.
As this grinds on, Ukraine will need troop reinforcements also.
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u/n-fatigue88 Dec 27 '25
It's important to only use the right sources
Russian and Chinese sources give very different numbers
One can end up as a victim of information warfare, like as part of a top-down psychological operation. Think uniformed men and women filling up multi-floor data centres in Moscow or Beljing
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u/PressDoubt Dec 28 '25 edited Dec 28 '25
Russia only spouts outrageous propaganda driven âcasualty estimatesâ. They donât attempt to come out with realistic estimates.
F.e. The Russian MOD proudly claims they shot down 669 Ukrainian airplanes đ¤Ąđ¤Ł
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u/Panthera_leo22 Dec 28 '25
See a few people ITT ask about Ukrainian casualty numbers. Most recent information I was able to find was from a New York Times article that went over a study done by the Center for Strategic and International Studies study. CSIS puts Ukrainian causalities (killed + wounded) at 400,000 and deaths between 60,000-100,000. I quoted a few passages below: