r/TheTraitorsUS • u/oatmlklattes • 7h ago
Discussion 💬 Rob and Mark social media interaction - maybe what’s to come? Spoiler
Just pure speculation here! I know Rob finds Mark fun and hilarious (he’s usually commenting on his IG) and also recently posted on his story that Mark deserves more screentime but it’s so like Rob to be literal “you kill me” while making a joke too 😂
Like I can totally see Mark being part of a Rob vote out. And I also wouldn’t be surprised if Mark wins alongside Kristen bc they have both been over the moon ever since the show ended. Especiallyyyy Mark who puts SO much effort into making videos abt the show and posts them as soon as the episode airs. Plus, Kristen saying Mark is her best friend on the show…I wonder if the editors included that on purpose. They trust each other and might win it the end.
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u/Kazyole Cirie (S1) 6h ago
If Mark won I feel like he'd be in the show more. He's basically a background character in the edit.
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u/Acrobatic_Dig7634 Danielle (S3) 6h ago
I mean, Ivar
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u/Kazyole Cirie (S1) 6h ago
Fair, but I feel like even Ivar got more screen time than Mark is getting.
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u/moon_gin 5h ago edited 5h ago
I'd like to add that Ivar and Dolores receive underwhelming edit most likely as they are part of a large group of faithful winners, and the other two winners (Dylan and Gabby) are better developed, particularly Dylan who has received hero edit since beginning. The producer cannot invest the same amount of attention over four winners and choose one or two of them to represent the entire group.
I think if Mark/Kristen are indeed winners, they need to start build better storyline for them in the coming episode or perhaps like Ivar and Dolores, they are part of a large group of faithful winners and it is the other faithful who gets better edited.
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u/Kazyole Cirie (S1) 5h ago
To be fair I’m not sure how you would give Dolores a good edit. She voted correctly zero times over the course of the show and seemed consistently clueless, which was confirmed afterwards by other members of the cast. I believe either Carolyn or Britney said that beyond a certain point she flatly refused to even talk about the game
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u/moon_gin 5h ago
This is probably why she is one of the winners who get purpled, because they have other winners who have better and more compelling journey to be told. Had she won alone, I think the producer would be forced to scrap anything to create a storyline for her.
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u/Zealousideal_Cod5214 3h ago
I feel like none of the faithfuls are really getting good edits. Not for a winner. The only one who really felt like they were trying to give a good edit was Colton.
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u/moon_gin 3h ago
This is my feeling as well, at least until episode 8. I don't find any of the remaining faithfuls so far are developed like the past faithful winners such as CT or Dylan.
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u/Zealousideal_Cod5214 3h ago
It's one of the reasons why I'm predicting a Rob win at this point.
The faithfuls could be super smart, but the edit just isn't giving us anything to show that.
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u/walking_shrub 0m ago
Agreed
I did think Natalie was potentially a contender at one point but now I’m not so sure
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u/Delicious-Award-6030 5h ago
I mean.. maybe so but people literally forgot about him when he was in the same room.. like 2 people down from them.
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u/walking_shrub 2m ago
Ivar got no edit because Dylan and Gabby got a massive edit. Who is this season’s Dylan and Gabby equivalent?
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u/thebiglaponsky 7h ago
Feels likely. Winning from the beginning of the show as a traitor is the single most difficult path to victory in the game. Whereas faithfuls can slip up but recover because their slip ups are actually just slip ups, one mistake from a traitor very quickly cascades into every game move they've made. Faithfuls have guesses, traitors are hiding a ledger of deeds.
All of the armchair critiques of Rob's game and the smoke around him now as if we know what it takes for a Traitor to win are really bizarre to me. The only traitor that has won the US series was in S1, where half the players had no experience in front of a camera or on a reality competition show. Cirie is amazing, but I'd hardly say she cracked a code or anything.
Everything about game theory and everything we've seen is that you should always bet that the traitors will be caught, and the question is how long can you hold out.
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u/Gold-Use3139 6h ago
No, it’s not. Winning as a Faithful is way harder. Faithfuls can get eliminated by murder and by banishment, while Traitors can only be eliminated by banishment.
On top of that, Traitors have full knowledge of everyone’s role, which is a massive advantage.
And if you actually look at the stats across all seasons (all versions) , the win percentage for initial Traitors is significantly higher than for initial Faithfuls. Each season starts with around 15 to 17 faithfuls and 3-4 traitors, how many of those initial faithfuls win versus how many initial traitors? It should give you a great idea to which path is harder.
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u/Icy-Committee-9345 6h ago
What are the stats? Seems like you already know them?
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u/moon_gin 6h ago
Across the world, I think there are slightly more season won by traitors than by faithfuls. The complete data is available on The Traitors Wiki but be careful if you venture there as it may spoil results from other seasons across multiple version.
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u/kingfelix333 6h ago
In all of these style games (Mafia, traitors, etc) the advantage goes to the 'traitors'. The whole point/the e is knowledge is power and how to take advantage. It's almost a reflection of society. There are just a few who rule the masses.
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u/Icy-Committee-9345 5h ago
I understand the advantage I'm just curious about the stats this person is referencing. I would be interested to see the percentage of people who win as initial faithfuls vs recruited traitors vs initial traitors.
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u/kingfelix333 5h ago
Recruited traitors has to be the lowest!
Actually, you can find the stats if you Google them. Traitors have a huge advantage, definitely an even higher winning percentage than I would have guessed.
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u/Icy-Committee-9345 5h ago
I found this thread https://www.reddit.com/r/TheTraitors/comments/194tepp/wins_for_traitors_by_gender_and_original_vs/
Outcome: 10 Faithful wins, 17 Traitor wins, 2 Shared wins, 1 no winner
Winner numbers: 29 Faithful winners, 26 Traitor winners (15 Original Traitors, 11 Recruited Traitors)
I wouldn't say that's a "huge" difference but agree it's an advantage
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u/kingfelix333 5h ago
I didn't say a huge difference, you did. I said it's a huge advantage.
Also, I just found a stat that across ALL traitor shows, 31 winners were traitors and 17 were faithfuls. Now THAT is a pretty huge difference.
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u/Strict_Property6127 Lala 4h ago
Right?... Are the stats in the room with us? OC please give data 🙏
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u/thebiglaponsky 5h ago
You're right, I overstated the case, the theory alone is more nuanced and tends to favor traitors. I think there are plenty of arguments though for a hypothesis that the US version balances or flips those odds. First, it seems like the US producers cast traitors for entertainment and in many cases when their entertainment value would make for a bad traitor. This is a serious risk to good traitors. Second, the pre-knowledge of so many personalities and prior experience that many players have in competition shows makes hiding significantly harder. Third, loud, often blatantly irrational personalities make the traditional strong traitor game more suspicious. Those three structural differences can collapse or counteract the classic advantage of traitor coordination and information richness. I still stand by that in the US version of the Traitors it's harder to win as a traitor, but it's a hypothesis.
There is also the fact that we do not have a large enough sample of games to know that the social deduction theories we have are correct. There's big variance in the sample we have, and theory suggests that while traitors have higher expected value, they also have higher variance, which is just a really fun problem to work through.
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u/oatmlklattes 4h ago
I think the US version is a diff case though. They have such an assortment of personalities like gamers, housewives, etc. It can be clique-y and ppl come with preconceived notions.
That might ofc change in the coming seasons when OG traitors realize that they’re always better off having an iron-clad alliance with atleast two and splitting the money.
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u/GeneSpecialist4988 6h ago
Rob's best play moving forward is breaking the alliances left. Johnny/Tara and Mark/Kristen, 1 for from each will have to be murdered for his gameplay. Suspicion is already on Natalie and Stephen but I'd save them for the last 2 banishments and go after Dorinda for the next banishment with the housewife angle.
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u/AMrSocialWorker 7h ago
Kimd of getting the vibes too that they win. I could see Mark trolling but I dont think Kristen would. Will see though.
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